The Commerce Department said Friday in a report delayed by the government shutdown that a key inflation measure was lower than expected in September, giving the Federal Reserve permission to cut interest rates further.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% from the previous month, for an annualized rate of 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones Consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate declined slightly from 2.9% in August.
Additionally, the Ministry’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the headline PCE rose by 0.3% in the month, and the annual inflation rate was also 2.8%. Both of these measures were in line with expectations, although the annualized rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August.
Fed officials use the PCE price index as their primary policy tool to combat inflation. Officials consider both measures, but generally believe the core is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends.
“A somewhat volatile September inflation report suggests prices are reasonably stable despite tariffs and healthy consumer spending, which likely provides further air cover for the Fed to cut rates in December,” said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at GlobalX.
Commodity prices rose 0.5% month-on-month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to have an effect on the economy. Service prices rose only 0.2%. Food prices rose 0.4% and energy prices rose 1.7%.
The report also showed that the personal savings rate remained unchanged from August at 4.7%.
The announcement was delayed for several weeks as the government shutdown halted all data collection and economic reporting.
In addition to inflation statistics, the release also provided information on income and expenses.
Personal income increased by 0.4% from the same month, and expenditures increased by 0.3%. Revenue was 0.1 percentage point higher than expected, but expenditure was 0.1 percentage point lower than expected.
Stocks rose further following the announcement, as traders expected the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point when it announced Wednesday’s rate decision.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Gauge, the probability of a rate cut when the Fed convenes next week remains at 87.2% following the report. Interest rate decisions will be announced on Wednesday.
Although the September numbers are negative, this is the last price forecast the Fed will have before next week’s monetary policy meeting.
But policymakers are unusually divided on what the next step in interest rates should be.
One faction of the FOMC favors further interest rate cuts as a way to prevent further weakness in the labor market, while another sees the continuing threat from inflation and the need to keep interest rates more subdued.
Recent labor market indicators show a slow pace of hiring, and some private data points show increasing levels of layoffs. However, Labor Department data actually showed that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week.
Separate economic reports on Friday showed consumer sentiment was slightly better than expected in early December.
The University of Michigan consumer survey scored 53.3, up 4.5% from November and above Wall Street expectations of 52. Inflation expectations also fell, with the one-year outlook at 4.1% and the five-year outlook at 3.2%, both the lowest levels since January.
