Japanese concert in China suddenly canceled amid rising tensions

BEIJING — The escalating conflict between China and Japan is strengthening Beijing’s growing economic influence and making it prone to sudden actions that can create uncertainty for businesses.

A few hours before Japanese jazz quintet The Blend performed in Beijing on Thursday, a plainclothes man entered the DDC Music Club during soundcheck.

Afterwards, “the venue owner came up to me and said, ‘The police told us it’s canceled tonight. We’re not going to discuss it,'” said Christian Petersen-Clausen, a music agent who has organized more than 70 concerts in China in the past 12 months.

“Right now, everything in Japan is canceled,” he said. He added that it took The Blend six months to obtain approval from Chinese censors to allow them to perform in the country.

DDC announced Thursday afternoon that the evening’s concert was canceled due to force majeure and ticket holders would be automatically refunded within the next few days.

Japanese singer-songwriter Kokia’s Wednesday night concert in Beijing has also been canceled, according to the venue. Thursday’s announcement blamed technical issues.

Again, there was little advance notice. Social media posts from fans said they waited outside the venue for more than an hour, well past the concert’s scheduled start time.

Concerts by other Japanese artists in China were also canceled or postponed this week.

This appears to be the latest fallout from an escalating conflict between China and Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Nov. 7 comments suggesting Japan would support Taiwan if Beijing’s military threat becomes serious. The Chinese government claims sovereignty over Taiwan, a democratically self-governing island. Taiwan rejects this claim, insisting that only the people can decide on Taiwan’s future.

“The pace and scale of the Chinese government’s response… is completely unprecedented,” said George Chen, a partner at Asia Group, a Washington, D.C.-based business policy consulting firm. He added that the biggest risk for Japanese brands in China would be a nationwide boycott, but so far there are limited signs that Chinese consumers are shunning the brands on a large scale.

Late last week, two Chinese ministries began warning citizens not to travel or study in Japan. China’s Ministry of Commerce also threatened on Thursday to take countermeasures if Japan “continues on the wrong path,” according to a translation by CNBC.

So far this year, mainland Chinese tourists have become the largest group of foreign travelers to Japan, with Nomura estimating that bilateral tensions could reduce the small Asian country’s GDP by 0.29%.

However, no government agency has publicly announced a ban on Japanese concerts. CNBC could not reach the Ministry of Culture for comment because it was outside business hours in Beijing.

And it’s not just music that could be affected; there are also reports that the Chinese government will ban the import of all Japanese seafood, but China’s Ministry of Commerce has refused to confirm or deny this. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs merely stated, “Currently, there is no market for Japanese marine products even if they enter China.”

The moves highlight how abrupt and vague China’s top-down policies are, making it difficult for companies to plan.

“There’s no predictability because no one announces policy publicly,” music agent Petersen-Clausen said. He said he had organized a Japanese concert in Shanghai on Wednesday without any problems, adding: “No one has said that Saturday’s concert will definitely be cancelled.”

However, China remains resolute in its statements, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday once again asked Takaichi to retract his remarks, warning that “If Japan causes trouble in Taiwan, Japan will not be able to escape.”

“Basically what that means is there’s no hope for Saturday,” Petersen-Clausen added.

He said the venue was expecting about 200 attendees on Thursday alone, adding that about 20 Chinese nationals would have been paid for work related to both shows. Tickets for the jazz performance were listed for the equivalent of $40 to $70 each.

The film industry may also be under pressure. The local release of a Japanese animated film featuring Crayon Shin-chan and the “Cells at Work!” series has been postponed, China’s state news agency Xinhua said on Wednesday. The move was judged to be “wise” given China’s declining interest in Japanese films.

“The risk for China is that, like in South Korea, the perception that China overreacted will intensify anti-China sentiment in Japan,” Teneo analysts said in a report.

“If the Chinese government chooses to continue to increase pressure on this incident, additional measures could include trade investigations and new barriers to imports from Japan justified on the basis of product safety concerns.”

Perhaps surprisingly, international musical performances are often the first to be affected by geopolitical conflicts.

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, some venues in the US and UK canceled performances and shows by artists believed to support Russian President Vladimir Putin. China has also restricted large-scale Korean pop music performances for nearly a decade to protest new missile systems, but there are signs that these acts may soon return.

For Petersen-Clausen, the uncertainty surrounding concerts in China is hurting business.

“Foreign musicians are refusing to book us because they don’t know if the event will actually take place or if it will be cancelled,” he said. “There are rumors going around that China can be unstable at times. That’s a problem for us if we want to promote people-to-people exchanges.”

“If we don’t have stability and predictability, we will be disclosing very significant risks that are unnecessary to potential investors,” he said.

Taylor Swift’s $2 billion Ella Tour didn’t include China, but Mariah Carey and the Black Eyed Peas both performed on the mainland this year. Chinese policymakers are trying to encourage some live events as a way to boost consumption and the overall economy.

But national leaders have other priorities as well.

“Along with sports, music and the arts are the first to be ‘rediscovered’ as avenues for governments to engage or re-engage,” said James Zimmerman, a Beijing lawyer and former president of the China-American Chamber of Commerce.

“What happened to diplomacy?” he said. “These kinds of discussions lead to a decline in trust and make it increasingly difficult for both sides to rebuild trust. We see that in many bilateral relationships around the world.”

—CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report.