President Donald Trump announced on November 14 that his administration would be reversing some tariffs on the following items: coffeebeef, cocoa and bananas are facing a backlash from soaring food prices. But that doesn’t mean these prices will go down anytime soon.
Supply chain management data and history suggest that consumer prices will take time to ease.
The reason is “inventory”.
Food and daily necessities whose prices had soared were purchased and imported under higher tariffs and stored in warehouses.
“Consumers have not yet felt the major impact of inflation because they are located in the ‘middle mile,’ also known as warehouses and distribution centers,” said Zachary Rogers, lead author of the Logistics Manager Index and assistant professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University.
Retailers and logistics experts are already warning that operating margins are being hurt.
Mr. Rogers said the inflation will be felt once these products hit store shelves.
Now that these products are hitting shelves, retailers are having to sell them at higher prices to recoup their costs.
“Supply chains don’t react very quickly to pricing actions, whether it’s presidential intent or organic shifts in market conditions,” said Phil Kafalakis, CEO of food industry group IFMA.
Given supply chain pressures from the coronavirus pandemic, including the Ever Given’s blockage of the Suez Canal, it will take about six months for prices to rise, and another six months for prices to fall once the disruption is resolved.
A combination of supply chain pressures and rising logistics prices contributed to the “temporary inflation,” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
“It will take a long time for the inflation caused by tariffs to become apparent,” Chairman Powell said at the Fed’s interest rate decision press conference in July.
The canceled tariffs are what the White House describes as “reciprocal” tariffs.
“A 10 to 40 percent reduction in price markups from tariffs will only improve long-term profits for the intermediaries who produce, harvest, transport, market and sell food to consumers,” Kafalakis said.
“The effects of this executive order will not be felt by consumers for an extended period of time,” he said.
“There may be some relief for tomatoes and strawberries in the spring,” he said.
Mr Kafalakis said he may see some products, such as coffee and cheese, being sold to attract consumer attention and drive foot traffic, but “for a limited time and in limited quantities.”
Brazil, which supplies 30% of the United States’ coffee supply, is the largest importer of coffee to the United States. The country’s tariffs were reduced by 10%, leaving the current International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff at 40%.
Kafalakis said the expectation of lower tariffs on some food categories will be beneficial to the restaurant industry. Lower prices will help offset the economic challenges faced by consumer demand.
“But unfortunately, consumers will continue to suffer from rising prices,” he said.
“The restaurant industry will try to increase foot traffic,” he said. “There will be promotions and discounts on some items.”
Economists warn that even after stocks are depleted and replenished, there is no guarantee that prices will return to previously low levels.
“In the third quarter earnings call, we heard about a number of companies that are still adjusting prices (i.e. raising prices) to manage their high cost structures due to tariffs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point Wealth Advisors.
“Even if the president loses the ability to use IEEPA for broad tariff policy, businesses will still remain highly wary of the possibility of categorical tariffs being applied as an alternative to IEEPA,” Boockvar said.
President Trump also exempted cocoa and some beef imports from high tariffs.
Cocoa stocks are soaring in price due to a combination of tariffs and reduced yields due to drought.
There are several reasons why beef prices are high, not just due to tariffs.
Due to IEEPA tariffs, Brazilian beef is currently subject to a 40% tariff. Before President Trump imposed tariffs on “Emancipation Day,” Brazil was the largest supplier of beef to the United States.
A 10% tariff on beef imports from Australia, Argentina and Uruguay has been removed, as has a 15% tariff on New Zealand beef imports.
“I think the most notable thing is the tariffs, especially on Brazilian beef and Argentine beef,” Boockvar said.
“It’s politically easy to impose tariffs on foreign competitors to protect domestic producers, but consumers usually end up paying the cost,” he said. “Then demand will shrink, chicken will be eaten instead, and domestic producers will end up no better off.”
Other issues continue to weigh on beef prices, including the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 74 years and an outbreak of the ringworm parasite in Mexico that led to a complete U.S. ban on Mexican beef.
The ripple effects of other tariffs are another reason why overall food inflation will not subside immediately with the removal of the current tariffs.
The increase in Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% has increased the prices of canned goods and machinery.
For example, the average unit price of canned cranberry sauce has jumped from $2.02 in November 2024 to $2.52 in October 2025, according to Nielsen IQ data on Thanksgiving grocery prices. Aluminum used in the manufacture of cans is subject to the 232 tariff.
retailers etc. walmart, targetAldi and Kroger have been touting the affordable aspects of their Thanksgiving meal sets.
Sources familiar with Walmart’s meal strategy and cosmetics told CNBC that this year’s set offerings have been reduced by 30% and some branded items have been replaced with private label products to keep costs down.
CNBC asked NielsenIQ to review the prices of popular Thanksgiving items included in holiday meal bundles. walmart.
Data shows that nearly half of the 20 items included in Thanksgiving side dishes saw their prices rise and sales decline from October 6 to November 1 compared to the same period in 2024.
In addition to canned cranberry sauce, cream of mushroom soup is also available.
Pecan pie increased by 15%.
Turkey prices are also going up.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus has reduced U.S. turkey flocks to their lowest size in nearly 40 years, according to the American Farm Federation.
Some imported fertilizers face double-digit tariffs, increasing the cost of growing the crops needed to produce feed.
A tariff repeal fact sheet released by the White House on Friday said some fertilizers would be exempted from the tariffs.
