U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive for a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
The easing of tensions between China and the US after their leaders met in South Korea last Thursday is in stark contrast to the cooling in Washington-New Delhi relations, with India currently subject to higher US tariffs than China.
Experts said the strategic relationship between India and the US, built over more than two decades, has been severely damaged.
Atman Trivedi, partner and head of South Asia practice at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, said the trust between the two countries “could take years to rebuild.”
High tariffs, a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas and US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that he brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan are among the issues that have soured relations between New Delhi and Washington in recent months, experts say.
“President Trump clearly does not value India as a balancing partner with China as much as his predecessors did,” said Raymond Vickery Jr., senior associate and director of India and emerging Asian economies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
U.S. foreign policy from President Bill Clinton until recently, including President Trump’s first term, has consistently focused on “a democratic India over an authoritarian China,” he said, adding that the approach toward India has now shifted from strategic altruism to “transactionalism.”
Meanwhile, relations between the United States and China appear to be improving.
“The G2 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was great for both countries,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Saturday, adding that it would lead to “everlasting peace and success.”
Shortly after, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in X that China and the US had “agreed to establish military-to-military channels to resolve disputes and reduce tensions” on all issues.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a trade truce in a high-stakes meeting in South Korea on Thursday, with Washington lowering fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20% to 10% and lowering overall tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47%.
China currently pays lower tariffs than India.
In August, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on India, including a 25% secondary tariff on purchases of Russian oil. India criticized the move as “unfair, unjust, and unreasonable,” while calling the US-India trade relationship “a completely unilateral disaster!”
On February 13, 2025, US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
Trivedi added: “There is currently a lack of chemistry at the leadership level, and the impact of this rupture on the US-India relationship probably cannot be overstated.”
During a trip to Asia last week, President Trump addressed business leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference in South Korea, where he threatened to impose 250% tariffs on India and Pakistan if they did not cease hostilities.
In April, 26 civilians were killed in an attack by militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India accused Pakistan of launching a military offensive that sparked a four-day conflict that threatened to escalate the decades-old tensions between the two countries into a war.
“The strategic relationship between India and the US has been under strain this year, not just because of the tariffs, but also because of the US position in the conflict with Pakistan and the apparent deterioration of relations with Pakistan’s military,” said Alexandra Harman, head of Southeast Asia research at Oxford Economics.
Mr Trump’s claims have been taken up by Mr Modi’s political opponents, including opposition leader Rahul Gandhi. Mr Gandhi reportedly told a political rally in Bihar on Sunday that Mr Modi was “afraid” of US President Donald Trump.
Harman added that the challenge for India going forward will be to find its place between the two economic superpowers.
“While New Delhi stands to benefit from greater access to U.S. demand, its dependence on China is unlikely to reduce in the short term given the continued extreme uncertainty around trade policy and the costs of repositioning supply chains,” he said.
Setting aside trade tensions, the United States and India on Friday signed the 10-year US-India Major Defense Partnership Framework.
Hegseth told X that the two countries are improving “coordination, information sharing and technical cooperation,” while India’s counterpart Rajnath Singh said the U.S.-India partnership is “crucial to ensuring a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.”
Experts have warned that if the US insists on a transactional approach to India, it will drive further distance between the two countries and undermine their strategic interests.
“Trump policies will bring India even closer to Russia, the Global South, and even China. This will not be in the interests of either India or the United States,” said Vickery Jr. of CSIS.
