President Trump says the Israel-Hamas war is over, but the road to peace is difficult

US President Donald Trump was in a bullish mood on Monday as he and other world leaders in Egypt signed the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, a precursor to a possible peace deal between Hamas and Israel.

President Trump signed the agreement in front of the world’s media, confidently saying, “It took us 3,000 years to get here, but can you believe it? And it will last.”

“We accomplished what everyone said was impossible: We finally have peace in the Middle East,” Trump said at a news conference afterward, surrounded by other leaders. “No one thought we would get there, but now we are there,” he added.

While most agree that President Trump deserves credit for helping bring an immediate end to the devastating war between Israel and Hamas (which saw the return of two years of prisoners and the release of some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees), achieving long-term peace is another matter.

“At the end of the day, it was very important to reach a ceasefire. It was important not just for Gaza and Israel, but for the entire region that has been consumed by this conflict. But that’s also the easy part,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“While both sides have shown some willingness to come to the table and talk and come to some kind of agreement, the real difference is what happens ‘the next day’,” Geist-Pinfold said.

Analysts say Trump’s 20-point peace plan is lacking in detail and has many gray areas, meaning there is room for grievances and disagreements in the short and long term.

This is especially true with regard to both the demilitarization of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, which is currently under Hamas control, as well as the most pressing issue of the peace plan, a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians, which is perhaps the most contentious issue.

President Trump declined to address the issue during a visit to Israel on Monday, telling reporters on Air Force One: “I’m not talking about a single state or dual states or two states,” before adding: “A lot of people like a one-state solution, some people like a two-state solution. We have to figure it out.”

Both countries had said they were “yes” to the cease-fire agreement, but given the growing international pressure and unrest from President Trump and regional partners in the Middle East, as well as the weakening of Iran, a supporter of Hamas, there was little other option, but experts say each side will likely look for the other to violate and abandon the agreement.

“Israel’s demands for the demilitarization of Hamas and the exile of its leaders would essentially mean organizational suicide if Hamas agreed to them,” Geist Pinfold said.

“On the other hand, Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is something that (Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted from day one,” he said, adding, “So the stakes here are very, very high.”

The peace plan envisions the creation of a “peace commission” chaired by Trump to oversee the establishment of a transitional authority to administer Gaza and oversee reconstruction. How this would work in practice, and who would keep the peace, is unclear.

“As for the peacekeepers, we don’t know how many there are, when they will be sent and from which countries, what their mission will be. All these questions are back in the open,” Geist-Pinfold said.

Uriel Ablov, visiting professor at Cornell University’s School of Government and professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, agreed that the agreement signed at Monday’s peace summit in Egypt is not necessarily a “peace deal.”

“This is a survival pact for leaders who thrive on conflict. For two years, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hamas have used this war to consolidate their power, continuing a long-standing dynamic in which extremism on both sides legitimizes the other’s extremism,” Ablov said in emailed comments.

“This agreement, forced by foreign backers such as the United States and Qatar, is deliberately vague on core issues, allowing both countries to claim victory,” he added.

Ablov said both sides share the “tacit goal” of preventing a viable Palestinian Authority from governing Gaza. “Therefore, durable peace is not on paper,” he said.

“The only way forward is through civil renewal, replacing Israelis and Palestinians with leaders who believe perpetual war is essential to maintaining power.”

Feelings of bitterness, mistrust and hostility, if not outright hatred, run deep on both sides of the smoldering conflict, with the latest escalation in tensions leaving thousands dead and 1.7 million displaced, according to the United Nations.

In Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the terrorist organization killed 1,200 people and took hundreds hostage. The Israeli response and ensuing war have left more than 67,000 Palestinians dead, including thousands of civilians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. In the process, Gaza itself was largely destroyed, with most buildings in ruins.

The pain and loss will not be forgotten, much less forgiven, overnight. At the same time, all peace processes have to start somewhere.

Thomas Schwartz, distinguished professor of history and political science at Vanderbilt University, said there is room for cautious optimism.

“I see some strong similarities with past breakthroughs in the Middle East, particularly Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy and Jimmy Carter’s Camp David Accords,” he said in emailed comments Monday.

“This should serve as a bit of a wake-up call. In the Middle East, we often take two steps forward and then one step back. It will be a long road to true peace in the region, but I am genuinely optimistic.”