WASHINGTON (AP) — The cooler and sometimes costly opposite of El Niño, La Niña, has arrived and is wreaking havoc on weather around the world, meteorologists announced Thursday. This natural weather phenomenon often turbocharges the Atlantic hurricane season, but la niña It may be too weak and ephemeral to cause any major problems.
In the United States, La Niña events often mean increased precipitation, including the possibility of snowstorms, in northern regions and dry winters in the south. Heavier rainfall is possible in Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America, and southeastern Africa. Meteorologists said drought conditions could also occur in the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, South Korea and southern Japan.
People clear sidewalks during a winter snowstorm in Philadelphia on February 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)
La Niña occurs when certain areas of the central Pacific Ocean become 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than normal. The world is experiencing a La Niña event this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday. But based on predictions from multifactor computer models by NOAA and Columbia University, the weather likely won’t be very strong and could dissipate in the coming months, said Michel Leroux, lead scientist for the NOAA team that studies both La Niña and El Niño.
“There is a three-quarters chance that a weak event will follow,” Rollou said in an email. “Weaker events tend to have a smaller impact on global circulation, so there may be more unexpected events in the future.”
Surprisingly, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already been described. Forecast stronger than normalbut so far, slightly below average Active. Traditionally, wind shear weakens during La Niña events, which prevents hurricanes from forming and strengthening, allowing larger storms to form, especially in the Caribbean and other parts of the country from late October to early November, said Brian Tan, a hurricane expert at the University at Albany.
But Brian McNoldy, who studies tropical cyclones, sea level rise and extreme heat at the University of Miami, said he thinks this latest La Niña event is too slow and too ineffective.
Heavy rains from Hurricane Milton cause the Anclote River to flood and water levels to rise around Pasco County in New Port Richey, Florida, Oct. 11, 2024 (AP Photo/Mike Carlson, File)
Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane expert, said this situation, particularly wind shear, could lead to increased hurricane activity, but that hasn’t happened yet and long-range computer models won’t form much over the next few weeks.
The winter a year ago Similarly weak La Niña phenomenon But there are still some signs of that impact, Rollou said.
Several studies have shown that La Niña events may be more costly than warmer El Niño events in the United States. a 1999 Economic Survey The damage caused to U.S. agriculture due to La Niña drought was found to be between $2.2 billion and $6.5 billion, far more than the $1.5 billion caused by El Niño.
Azhar Ehsan, a research scientist in charge of El Niño-La Niña forecasting at Columbia University, said cold La Niña events are not necessarily expensive, but they are common.
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