“Zootopia 2,” “Wicked: For Good,” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
Courtesy of Disney Enterprises, Inc. | Universal Pictures
Box office revenue is likely to get hot in the future.
After a scorching summer of action-packed blockbuster films, the theatrical momentum slowed down in autumn. However, the latest estimates show that ticket sales will steadily increase in winter, with domestic ticket sales exceeding $9 billion in 2025, approaching post-pandemic highs.
“The domestic box office revenue from the start of the year has been at a pace of about 4% higher than last year, and if we can broaden this lead, it could be the biggest post-pandemic year for films,” said Paul Dargalabedian, Comscore’s director of marketplace trends.
Comscore data shows that heading into the fourth quarter, domestic box office revenue this year was $6.5 billion, up from $6.3 billion the previous year. The full year box office record that is about to surpass is $9.05 billion tallyed in 2023.
Macquarie analysts predict Disney’s “Tron: Ares” was the first domino defeat and created momentum throughout the rest of the year. Then I’ll come Universal’s For “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s Zootopia 2, Macquarie both expects domestic ticket sales to exceed $250 million. This year will be concluded with “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
“It’s common for autumn to have high and lows, but I can’t overemphasize the importance of the triple that Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash formed during the holiday season,” said Sean Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “Many other films will contribute to the total number as key counter-programmers and mid-range influentials.”
Other releases include Universal’s “Black Phone 2” and Disney and 20th Studio’s “Predator: Badlands.” Paramount’s “Running Man” and Universal’s “Five Nights at Freddies 2.”
Eric Handler of Ross Capital Partners expects the box office revenue to reach $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a 7% increase from the previous year. This brings full year sales to nearly $9.1 billion, up 5% from 2024.
Macquarie’s expectations are even higher, with the financial group estimated at $2.7 billion in the quarter and $9.2 billion annually.
“And the ripple effects from Avatar: Fire and Ash, as well as Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Mandalorian and Grogoo, Toy Story 5, Minions 3, Moana, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Part 3,” Macquarie’s team wrote:
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns Fandango and CNBC. With Comcast’s plan for Versant’s spin-off, Versant will become the new parent company of Fandango and CNBC.
