Iran and the United States have signaled they are close to a deal that would turn the existing ceasefire that ended weeks of conflict into a longer-term settlement.
The two sides are discussing a “memorandum of understanding” setting out a roadmap to resolve all outstanding issues, but there are no plans to reach an agreement today.
However, what is written in the memorandum remains unclear.
A central premise of this approach is that a memorandum of understanding would result in a cessation of fighting, which would be welcome news for both sides as US President Donald Trump faces midterm elections later this year and Iran’s economy is in crisis.
The latest memorandum, which President Trump is believed to be nearing completion, will also include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, according to people familiar with the matter. After that, the countdown will begin to resolve other challenges, such as Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Iranian state media doubts whether the memorandum will even be agreed. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said on Sunday that “differences remain over one or two articles of a possible memorandum of agreement.”
And after saying the deal was “largely negotiated,” President Trump said the U.S. was in no rush to conclude the deal.
Here’s what we know about some of the key issues of concern.
US President Donald Trump said in a social media post late Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway, would be reopened under the memorandum.
However, multiple Iranian media outlets, including those close to the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), reported on Sunday that the strait would remain under Iranian surveillance. Iran will be given 30 days to restore its shipping industry to pre-war levels.
Iran is also demanding that the U.S. lift the blockade of its ports, but Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that “the blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed,” apparently referring to the final agreement rather than the memorandum of understanding.
Iranian media stressed that the resumption of shipping does not mean Tehran will abandon its wartime claims to the strategic chokepoint. In effect, Iran appears to be indicating that it intends to maintain a greater degree of control over the strait passage than before the conflict, while allowing commercial traffic to return to pre-war volumes.
“The strait is already open, but coordination with relevant Iranian authorities is required to ensure safe passage,” an Iranian official told CNN on Sunday.
“The Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the United States. It is an issue between us and the coastal countries,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai said on Saturday, particularly with Oman.
During the conflict, Iran has said it has the right to impose fees on commercial ships passing through the strait.
Iran’s uranium inventory and enrichment
A potential deal between the US and Iran includes a commitment from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons, CNN reported on Sunday. The sources said Iran also plans to enter into negotiations to abandon its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and suspend new enrichment.
Iranian officials insist that negotiations over uranium can only begin once a memorandum of understanding is agreed to end the war. Uranium is an important nuclear fuel that, when enriched to high levels, can be used to make nuclear bombs.
“The nuclear issue is not being discussed at this stage,” Bagai said on Saturday.
The semi-official Fars news agency reported on Sunday that “Iran has not made any commitments in the deal regarding handing over its nuclear stockpile, removing equipment, closing facilities or even pledging not to build nuclear bombs.”
President Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran needs to give up its more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in some form. Most of them are believed to have been buried after last year’s US airstrikes.
Enrichment is not expected to be addressed in detail in the first memorandum, and finding a way to resolve differences between the two sides will be one of the main challenges of a comprehensive agreement. President Trump cited Iran’s nuclear program as the main reason for the attack and previously said a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment was acceptable.
Iran, whose economy is in deep crisis, is demanding the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets held in foreign banks.
“At the beginning of this process, we need to clarify the release status of blocked assets,” Baghaei said.
Tasnim said on Sunday, citing “sources,” that “if certain parts of Iran’s blocked assets are not released in this first step, unless there is a clear mechanism to ensure and continue to release all blocked assets, there will be no deal.”
However, a senior US administration official told CNN on Sunday that unfreezing Iranian assets would only occur once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The United States has not disclosed how these assets, held in multiple foreign banks, will be returned to Iran.
Iran’s economy is also affected by extensive international sanctions, most of which have been imposed by the United States and Europe.
Baghai said on Saturday that although “Iran’s demand for all sanctions to be lifted is clearly stated in the text,” “sanctions lifting will not be discussed in this short period of time.”
“We need to negotiate the details after the memorandum is finalized,” he added, suggesting that the suspension of sanctions is related to the nuclear issue.
Iran estimates that lifting sanctions on oil sales alone could generate nearly $10 billion in revenue for the government over 60 days, the state-run Fars news agency reported.
Sanctions imposed on Iran, as well as Iran’s frozen assets, will only be lifted once the Strait of Hormuz is open and fully operational again, US officials told CNN.
During the conflict, U.S. officials said Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles must be destroyed. “The conventional ballistic missile program is growing rapidly and dramatically,” President Trump said. But there has been little talk lately about missile weapons being part of broader negotiations, even though Israel and Gulf Arab states consider it an urgent risk.
It is also unclear how or whether Israel will deal with the conflict in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday that the text of the memorandum referred to “a declaration of an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
But President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he supports the country’s desire to “maintain freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon,” an Israeli official told CNN.
In a phone call with President Trump on Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu “stressed that Israel maintains freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon, and President Trump reiterated his support for this principle,” a senior official said on Sunday.
Ultimately, Iran insists it is ready to reach a “fair and balanced deal,” Iranian officials told CNN on Sunday. “The most important thing for us is that wars must end forever across the Middle East.”
