A CHIOS crude oil tanker and a U.S. flag waving in the wind anchor off the coast of Chevron’s El Segundo Refinery on March 4, 2026 in El Segundo, California.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
U.S. oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the final stages.
west texas intermediate Futures fell more than 5% to close at $98.26 per barrel. international benchmark brent Futures also fell by more than 5%, settling at $105.02 per barrel.
President Trump said earlier this week that he was halting new military strikes against Iran to give time for diplomacy at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He told reporters Wednesday that the administration is in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, according to the pool report.
Although President Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran and ending the war quickly, tensions between the United States and Iran have only escalated again.
Iran and the United States have been in a standoff in recent weeks, with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the United States blocking Iranian ports. Hormuz is one of the world’s most important trade routes supplying oil and gas.
Citibank warned on Tuesday that the market was underestimating the risk of a prolonged disruption to oil supplies in Hormuz. We expect Brent to trade as high as $120 per barrel in the near term.
“In our view, it appears increasingly likely that the Iranian regime will disrupt SoH flows for some time,” Citi analysts told clients.
In a worst-case scenario, in which Hormuz Island remains closed until the end of the year, oil prices could approach $200 a barrel, according to an analysis published Wednesday by Wood Mackenzie.
But Wood Mackenzie said prices would fall significantly if the US and Iran reached an early peace deal to open Hormuz by June. In this scenario, spot Brent prices would fall to around $80 per barrel by the end of 2026, the consultancy said.
