Ukraine is at a “critical moment” of war. European allies increase pressure on Russia

Ukraine’s European allies said on Monday that President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to share a revised peace plan with the United States, saying the war was at a “critical moment”.

President Zelensky met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron in London as European leaders scrambled to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity and future security was not compromised in the face of increasing pressure from the United States.

Starmer’s office said in a statement after the meeting that the leaders discussed “the importance of US-led peace negotiations to Europe’s security” and supported the progress made so far.

Mr Starmer’s representative added: “The leaders emphasized the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, including strong security.” “While continuing diplomatic efforts, the leaders agreed that Europe must support Ukraine and strengthen its defense capabilities against relentless attacks.”

Mr Starmer, Mr Merz, Mr Macron and Mr Zelensky also discussed the “positive progress” made in the use of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine.

Last week, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, proposed supporting Ukraine with a “compensation loan” using cash from the balances of European financial institutions that hold frozen Russian central bank assets. It also proposed borrowing funds from international markets, offering member states an alternative to using Russian capital.

The Prime Minister’s Office noted that those attending Monday’s meeting also took part in telephone conversations with other European leaders after the initial talks.

“The leaders agreed that this is a critical moment and that we must continue to step up support for Ukraine and economic pressure on President Putin to end this brutal war,” the spokesperson said.

As European leaders reiterated their support for Kiev, Zelensky stressed that Ukraine also remains dependent on input from the US government.

“There are some things we can’t manage without the United States, and there are some things we can’t manage without Europe, so we have to make some important decisions,” he told a news conference.

But Merz struck a somewhat cautious tone that U.S. negotiators are achieving an imminent breakthrough that is acceptable to both Ukraine and the broader European continent.

“This could be a defining moment for all of us,” he told reporters. “We’re trying to continue our support to Ukraine, but we’re also seeing these discussions and decisions taking place between Moscow and the United States. We look forward to hearing from (Zelensky) what the outcome of these talks will be.”

Britain and France are leading proponents of a “coalition of the willing,” a group of countries that could be part of a “reassurance force” to support post-war Ukraine’s security.

According to media reports, Ukraine is expected to share a revised peace plan with the United States after the London talks.

In comments reported by Sky News, Zelensky said the updated plan consisted of 20 points with “some obvious anti-Ukrainian points removed.” He added that he would share the revised plan with the US today.

Trump claimed on Sunday that Zelensky had not yet read the latest U.S.-backed peace plan, but it was unclear which version Trump was referring to.

“Everyone knows that the fate of this country is the fate of Europe,” Merz added on Monday. “No one should doubt our support for Ukraine. I’m skeptical about some of the details we’re seeing in the documents from the American side, but we have to talk about it. That’s why we’re here.”

Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Tuesday that negotiations to end the war appear to be “circling back and forth.”

“I’ve said it many times,” she said. “Frankly, I sometimes wonder what they keep talking about, because the issue is always the same: it’s about territory, it’s about security guarantees, and security guarantees are probably more difficult than territory, but territory is also difficult for Ukraine.”

President Zelenskiy also met in Brussels on Monday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO chief Mark Rutte and European Council President Antonio Costa, and said the main focus of the European talks would be to strengthen security from continental allies.

Starmer’s office said the leaders who met in London “stressed the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, including strong security.”

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that Russia would seize Ukraine’s key Donbas region “by force” unless Ukraine voluntarily conceded territory.

Rosenberg told CNBC on Tuesday that Kiev was unlikely to bow to that pressure.

“The territory we are talking about is an important defense zone for Ukraine. If Ukraine abandons it, it will be much easier for Russia to penetrate deep into Ukraine, because it is a so-called fortress zone of important strongholds,” she explained.

“Behind that fortified zone there are planes that the military can easily penetrate. So Ukraine is going to maintain that status as long as possible. They will give up territory only when they are confident. It will give them confidence that they have security and that there will be no attack in the months or even years.”

— Tasmin Lockwood contributed to this report.