US President Donald Trump called it “potentially one of civilization’s great days” as he laid out the administration’s 20-point proposal for the comprehensive purpose of the war in Gaza. In a statement along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said, “We are very close.”
It’s the kind of hyperbolic language we’ve come to expect from the US president, but is it based on realistic expectations?
The plan calls for Israel to release 250 Palestinian prisoners to life in prison, with 1,700 Palestinians being detained since the start of the war, Hamas has released 48 hostages, of which 20 are believed to be alive. Hamas members can then grant amnesty if they “commit to peaceful coexistence and abolish weapons.”
According to the plan, Israel will gradually withdraw from Gaza, with temporary International Stabilization Forces (ISFs) led by Arab partners taking over the security of their abused territories. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Commission, overseen by an international organisation called the “Peace Commission,” runs Gaza until reformed Palestinian authority is ready to take over. The proposal recognises the aspirations of the Palestinian state and seeks to present “a reliable path to Palestinian self-determination and a state.”
Netanyahu said he supports the plan, but Israel has not yet been formally accepted as a formal cabinet vote is required for approval. The plan itself has not yet been finalized as Hamas provides feedback and has time to request changes.
Trump and Netanyahu have now shifted their focus to Hamas’ reaction. Key mediators Qatar and Egypt will discuss the proposal to hold a meeting with Hamas in Doha on Tuesday evening. Turkey, an ally of Hamas that houses some of its leaders, will also be part of those talks.
The plan appears to have crossed some of Hamas’ previously declared red lines, including the abolition of the group’s weapons and banning participation in Gaza’s future governance. Under the proposal, all Hamas infrastructure on the ground and below will be destroyed, and the supervision of independent monitors will “not be rebuilt.”
Trump’s peace plan brought Hamas back to the horn and brought extremist groups to face existential dilemma.
“It’s reasonable to assume Hamas will reject it,” writes former Israeli Defense Forces chief Tamir Heyman and Offer Guterman, senior researchers at conflict resolution at the National Security Institute (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
In Hamas, one clause creates a particularly big problem. Clause 17 states that even if Hamas refuses the proposal, there will be an increase in humanitarian aid and the transfer of conquered territories from Israeli forces to international forces.
Heyman and Gooterman wrote, “If Hamas refuses to trade, the initiative, as pointed out, will give Israel the freedom to continue to give away the freedom to continue to deploy the IDF under Hamas’ control, along with the progressive process of Hamas’ political, security and civil stabilization.”
Most of the international community, including Arab and Muslim states, are pressured Israel to stop fighting, but it is equally clear that Hamas must disarm immediately.
In an interview with CNN last week, Hamas senior Ghazi Hamad highlighted how far the demand is from the group’s intentions.
“The Hamas (armed wings) are legitimate and legal weapons and are always used against the profession,” he said.
If a Palestinian state is established, Hamad added, adding that Hamas’ weapons would be directed towards the Palestinian forces.
“But Hamas could not remove Hamas from the Palestinians. Hamas is in a positive role, so it’s the question and the Palestinian situation,” he said.
“We will never surrender,” Hamad added. “We will never surrender.”
Trump’s proposal has extensive international support. In a joint statement, eight Arab countries and Muslims supported the plan, saying that “creating a path for just peace based on the solutions of the two states.” Palestinian authorities governing parts of the occupied West Bank also supported the plan.
Netanyahu faces two possibilities widely. Hamas rejects the plan, and Hamas accepts it. Let’s deal with each individually.
This may have been Netanyahu’s plan for a long time. The Israeli leader spoke to his far-right allies after the deal was announced, and he said skeptical Hamas would accept the proposal. That way, he can double down on the plan of the war in Gaza with full support of Trump, “do what you have to do.”
For Netanyahu, this road is very easy as it continues the war that Israel is already fighting. The far-right allies of Israel’s leaders continue to support him and his war efforts, and his government remains intact.
This makes things faster and dramatically complicated for Netanyahu. Ending the war and bringing hostages into the house receives enormous domestic support, not from far-right lawmakers who are important to keep the prime minister in power. Once this proposal is approved and the war ends, they will likely control his government. Netanyahu has the opposition support for a comprehensive ceasefire, but it leaves his fate behind in his political opponents.
Netanyahu can simply go for it – bringing back hostages, ending the war and pursuing normalization in the region, which means that he will now face the elections that he is awfully following in the polls. And Netanyahu is probably more than anything else, a politician.
What role does the US and other countries play on the ground?
Trump’s plans require an incredible level of international involvement, and perhaps for years. The US President needs Arab countries to pressure Hamas to accept the proposal for a start.
But that’s just the beginning. The so-called “peace commission” will oversee the “technocratic and non-political Palestinian commission” responsible for daily governance in Gaza. The committee will be led by Trump himself, along with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and “other members and heads of state.”
Arab countries and other international partners will need to set up temporary ISFs for deployment to Gaza, including Palestinian police. The proposal relies on Israeli forces to handle security as they gradually withdraw from Gaza. The proposal also talks about investment plans and special economic belts that could take years to come into effect.
While we do not explicitly lay out a timeline for how long such forces are needed, this is clear from the proposal that this is a multi-year commitment from the international community to oversee and operate Gaza.
Importantly, Trump’s proposal lacks important details across the most important sections. The only clearly drawn timeline is the end of the war that frees the liberation of Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees. However, this is all done within the first few days of the proposal, and only if approved by both Israel and Hamas.
Hamas weapon decommissioning provides little details on who will do this or how to do it. The proposal simply calls for a “agreed process” under a “independent monitor.”
According to the map provided with a 20-point plan, Israel could take years to simply withdraw from most of Gaza after international security forces have been established and mobilized.
Palestinians confused their response to the news, with some hopeful that the conflict would be over, while others expressed skepticism and distrust of the plan.
“People are holding on to hope. …The plan will probably give you a breakthrough opportunity, but honestly, I don’t trust Trump or Netanyahu,” said Gaza resident Atta al-Jazar.
“I don’t support this plan, but there is no alternative. The alternative is the destruction of the Palestinians and their evacuation,” he added.
Mohamed Mansoor, another resident of northern Gaza, said he supports a plan to end the war.
“Let people live. …We’re tired. We hope that today’s war will end, not tomorrow,” said Mansoor, who lost his wife and children in the war.
Raed Sobh, another Palestinian resident in Gaza, said he was pessimistic about the plan and expressed distrust of Trump.
“Even before (Trump became president), he said, “I will stop the war… I will bring peace to the Middle East.” And nothing happened. He was here for a year. Nothing has changed. ”
