Tesla’s earnings report will be released after the market closes on Wednesday, but Wall Street analysts said those numbers won’t be the biggest driver of stock price movement. Signals regarding the company’s long-term business in energy storage, autonomous driving, AI chips, and robotics are likely to influence the stock price. In addition to declining vehicle profitability, Tesla also faces a loss of regulatory credit advantages due to the Republican 2025 tax cut bill. Investors will want to hear from CEO Elon Musk on the earnings call about progress in other areas of the business to offset these declines and boost profits. Energy Storage Most concerning is the recent decline in the performance of Tesla’s energy storage business, one of the company’s fastest growing divisions in recent quarters. Tesla deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hours of battery systems in the first quarter, down from a record of 14.2 gigawatt-hours in the fourth quarter of 2025. “Was the drop in energy storage adoption really a commissioning/timing issue, or will this be a multi-quarter challenge?” Wolf Research analysts asked in an April 21 research note. Robotaxis Robotaxis development is another key focus area for Tesla on the Street. “We believe investors’ focus on TSLA’s first-quarter earnings will be on the introduction of robotaxis, as they look to disrupt the ride-sharing market and capture a piece of the $1 trillion-plus market opportunity,” Bank of America analysts said in an April 21 note. Tesla plans to expand its robotaxi business into seven new markets in the first half of this year, according to Wolf Research, and announcements about these new lines of business could move the stock price. “TSLA is currently considering expansion into additional markets, including Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas as next target cities,” Kantar analysts wrote in a note Tuesday. “During the first quarter conference call, we will seek an update on the company’s plans to expand Robotaxis deployment to new cities, as well as an update on targeted unit economics.” When it comes to robotaxis, data/mild-driven is one potentially important metric for investors. “The increasing number of unsupervised robotaxi miles driven will improve the underlying self-driving model and accelerate the path to no personal supervision (full self-driving capability),” Morgan Stanley analysts said Monday. Autonomous Driving Software In its last earnings call, Tesla disclosed for the first time customer penetration rates for fully self-driving (FSD) features, analysts said. Tesla’s self-driving software still requires human supervision, but it recently won regulatory approval in the Netherlands, making it the first company in Europe to give the software a rating. “The company reported adding approximately 100,000 FSD customers in Q4 2025, with TSLA revealing 1.1 million FSD active subscribers in FY25 (compared to 0.8 million in FY24),” Kantar analysts said on Tuesday. Updates on these penetration rates could significantly boost stock prices. AI capital investment is expected to be around $20 billion this year, and the possibility of new AI chips will also be a touchpoint. Tesla shares soared earlier this month after the company announced it had completed the design of its AI5 chip, which Musk said would be produced jointly with Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung. Humanoid tech investors are also keeping an eye on Tesla’s development of its humanoid robot, Optimus. They want to know when the latest announcements will be made, what the production scale will be, and when they will be rolled out. Bank of America analysts said on Tuesday: “While we do not expect a significant near-term contribution from Optimus, we do see potential long-term opportunities, with our team forecasting global shipments of 1.2mm/10mm humanoid robots from 2030 to 2035.” While retail investors still appear to be supportive of the stock, Wall Street analysts are becoming more skeptical as the stock moves away from trading on earnings metrics. According to FactSet, Tesla’s average rating by Wall Street analysts is a “hold” with a 12-month price target of $412.63. The stock was most recently trading around $389.
