Morgan Stanley analysts say Take-Two Interactive Software’s stock price is set to rise with the release of the long-awaited Grand Theft Auto VI later this year. The blockbuster video game’s release, currently scheduled for November after several delays, should provide a “strong tailwind” to the stock as hype around GTA’s rollout gathers momentum. Nasdaq-listed Take-Two shares have fallen about 5.4% since the start of 2026, compared with an 11.3% rise in the broader index, as the company became embroiled in concerns about competition from AI models facing the video game sector. The company’s stock fell nearly 10% on Jan. 30 after Alphabet unveiled Project Genie, a new artificial intelligence model that can create interactive digital 3D worlds from user prompts. However, a Morgan Stanley analysis found that game publisher stocks tend to outperform in the lead-up to major game releases. Stocks in the sector rose an average of 18% in the last six months before the launch, according to Morgan Stanley. “These launches typically drive significant institutional and retail involvement in the stock, especially as marketing campaigns begin in the last three to six months,” the analysts wrote. “Increased investor attention but limited near-term execution risk are also creating strong tailwinds for stock performance.” TTWO .IXIC YTD Line AI concerns hit Take-Two stock Gamers and investors have been anticipating the release of GTA VI for years, as the release has been delayed multiple times. If it is released in November as currently planned, there will be a gap of 13 years between it and its predecessor, GTA V. According to Take-Two Interactive Software’s 2025 annual report, GTA V is the best-selling video game of the past decade in terms of both units sold and dollars earned. The company says it has sold 215 million copies and reached $1 billion in sales, faster than any other entertainment title to date. Morgan Stanley predicts the latest installment in the series will sell 40 million copies in 2027, compared to GTAV’s 33 million sales in a “comparable” period. Analysts predict that if GTA VI can capture 10% of consumer spending on console games, as GTA V did in 2013, the company’s total revenue will be around $4.5 billion. Take-Two Interactive is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday. Morgan Stanley analysts expect guidance to be “below consensus” based on trends seen in past reports, even though actual performance over the past decade has “consistently exceeded conservative starting points.” Morgan Stanley has set a May 2027 price target of $280 per share, implying a 17% upside. Take-Two Interactive stock closed at $238 per share on Tuesday.
