Ships in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, July 12, 2026.
Stringer | Reuters
Karsi market odds on when maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal were below 50% as of Friday afternoon.
The probability that traffic in the strait will return to normal by July 2027 has plummeted from nearly 70% to 47% in the past two days. The decline comes as the United States launched its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump hinting at another “massive strike” against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
There is a 38% chance that ship traffic will resume normally this year, but the chance of reaching regular shipping by April 2027 is only slightly better at 48%. Karshi’s event contract will be terminated if the seven-day rolling average of transit port calls exceeds 60, according to data verified by IMF Portwatch. The current 7-day rolling average of transit calls is approximately 12.
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, who claim to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, will add a new “dimension” to the timeline for reopening the strait, Matt Smith, head of Kupler’s commodity research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“We are planning to postpone the reopening until next year,” he said.
President Trump said in a post on the social media site Truth Social on Thursday that he would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis carry out further attacks.
On Friday, Reuters reported, citing three Pakistani sources, that Pakistan is pushing ahead with peace talks between the United States and Iran, with some encouragement from China.
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