If next week’s jobs report shows a resilient labor market, investors may be less wary of a deteriorating economic outlook. The U.S. economy is expected to add just 50,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates from FactSet, far below the previous explosion of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%. As some recent signs suggest, the “Goldilocks” report could allay concerns about a weakening U.S. economy. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, above the 0.5% rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, but below expectations of 2.2%. Bob Lang, founder and chief options analyst at Explosive Options, expects the strong jobs report could be welcome news for the stock market, but he also doesn’t expect it to have a big impact on the interest rate outlook. The latest Fed meeting suggested that no rate cuts are on the table any time soon, after three dissenting voices on the policy statement indicated a lack of support for an “accommodative bias” at this time. Markets are also adjusting their expectations. Two rate cuts have been priced in this year, but recent pricing in federal funds futures suggests a rate cut is unlikely until next year. Sell in May There are other reasons to be cautious. Investors are starting to wonder what the seasonally worst six months for the stock market will be in a year. This is the historical pattern referenced in the stock market adage, “Sell in May and walk away.” But many voices across Wall Street are suggesting this time may be different. Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500’s average return in May was 1.5%, and in June it was 1.9%, according to JPMorgan’s trading desk. The composite index rose by an average of 3.4% in July. This was especially true during the Trump era. The stock market tends to bottom in March and April, then rise for the rest of the year, Stock Traders Almanac editor Jeff Hirsch said in an email earlier this week. But the new trading month, which got off to a solid start with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record highs on Friday, comes after a particularly strong April for the stock market. These two indexes had their best monthly performance since 2020, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best monthly performance since November 2024. The three major stock averages also had strong weeks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6%. What is clear is that market volatility will continue, especially as earnings season continues. Just over half of the S&P 500 index has released earnings results so far. More than 80% of them exceeded expectations. Nvidia will be included in a future report, but results are not expected to be released until later this month. Next week will see further reports from several leading AI companies, including Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices. Major Dow companies such as Walt Disney will also report. Week Ahead Calendar All Time (ET). Monday, May 4th 10am Last Durable Order (March) 10am Last Factory Order (March) Revenue: Palantir Technologies, Diamondback Energy, Williams Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Paramount Skydance, ON Semiconductor, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Loews, Tyson Foods Tuesday, May 5th 9:45am S&P Global PMI Service Final Settlement (April) 10am ISM Service PMI (April) 10am JOLTS Jobs (March) 10am New Home Sales (March) Revenue: Healthpeak Properties, Advanced Micro Devices, Live Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Arista Networks, Super Micro Computer, Prudential Financial, Occidental Petroleum, Lumentum Holdings, International Flavors & Fragrances , EOG Resources , Emerson Electric , Devon Energy , Corteva , Public Service Enterprise Group , TransDigm Group , Huntington Ingalls Industries , Rockwell Automation , Duke Energy , KKR & Co. , Pfizer , Marathon Petroleum , Revvity , Gartner , Archer-Daniels-Midland , PayPal Wednesday, May 6, 8:15am ADP Employment Survey (April) Revenues: CF Industries, MetLife, Albemarle, Fortinet, Applovin, Axon Enterprise, Warner Bros. Discovery, Texas Pacific Land Corp., TKO Group, Host Hotels & Resorts, DoorDash, Coherent, Marriott International, Fastenal, Uber Technologies, Global Payments, Exelon, Bio-Techne, Apollo Global Management , Insulet, NRG Energy, The Kraft Heinz Co., The Walt Disney Co., CVS Health Thursday, May 7th 8:30 a.m. First Claim (05/02) 8:30 a.m. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Preliminary Productivity (Q1) 10:00 a.m. Construction Expenditures (March) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (March) Revenue: Mettler Toledo International, News Corp., Block, The Trade Desk, Expedia Group, Akamai Technologies, Wynn Resorts, Motorola Solutions, McKesson, Microchip Technology, Gilead Sciences, Consolidated Edison, Coinbase Global, Airbnb, Zoetis, Howmet Aerospace, Datadog, Tapestry, McDonald’s, Kenview Friday, May 8th 8:30 a.m. Hourly wages (April) 8:30 a.m. Weekly average number of workers (April) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing employment (April) 8:30 a.m. Non-agricultural employment (April) 8:30 a.m. Private non-agricultural employment (April) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment rate (April) 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment Report (May) 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventory (March) Revenue: PPL
