A passenger plane sits on the tarmac at Dubai International Airport in Dubai, March 11, 2026. On March 11, as Iran continued its campaign to disrupt oil markets and air and sea traffic, a drone crashed near Dubai airport in or near the Strait of Hormuz, injuring four people.
AFP | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Hui Jie from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire, the oil market was just beginning to stabilize at a high level. Then came another shock. The United Arab Emirates is planning to withdraw from OPEC.
At the same time, voices of warning about the global economy are becoming louder. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is now sounding the alarm on a potential debt crisis after billionaire Ray Dalio warned that the US economy was heading into stagflation.
However, the market did not sell due to concerns about crude oil and macroeconomic conditions. Rather, chip-related fears related to AI demand spooked investors and reminded them how deeply embedded that narrative is in their psyches.
What you need to know today
“The only thing you can predict about life is its unpredictability.”
This is an unlikely line from an unlikely source. Remy is the animated mouse-turned-cook from the Pixar film Ratatouille. But it does capture the wild events of the past 24 hours pretty neatly.
Just as oil prices were beginning to gain a foothold with the ceasefire between the US and Iran in doubt, news of the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC on May 1 hit the market.
Losing one of its most influential members is likely to lead to even greater volatility in oil prices. The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, was one of the few producing countries that had enough headroom to influence prices and respond to supply shocks.
Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said OPEC could end up being “structurally weakened” by the withdrawal.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic warnings are intensifying. A day after billionaire investor Ray Dalio raised concerns about the US economy sliding into stagflation, Jamie Dimon warned that rising government debt could trigger a bond market crisis.
“In the current climate, there’s going to be some kind of bond crisis, and if that happens, we’re going to have to deal with it,” Dimon said.
“Geopolitics, oil, government deficits and other things that go into the risk column are at a high level,” he added. “They may go away, but they may not. And we don’t know what confluence of events will cause the problem.”
Given this background, a risk-off move in the market may seem inevitable. It came, but not for such a reason.
Instead, the stock retracted its record with a drop in chips after a Wall Street Journal report said OpenAI missed its own forecasts for user growth and revenue.
The mistake raised concerns internally about whether the company could sustain the huge financial commitments needed to build data centers and secure long-term computing power.
This reaction highlights a change in market sentiment. While geopolitics and macro risks loom large, it is the AI story that continues to drive sentiment and volatility.
In other words, the mouse was right. As expected, it was unexpected.
— Lim Huijie
And finally…
“Hard development” under the Meta-Manus Agreement draws a line in China’s AI competition with the US
China’s decision to block U.S. tech giant Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of artificial intelligence startup Manas is seen by analysts as a warning to tech entrepreneurs.
“It’s clear that after Manasgate, founders will learn that if you start in China, you stay in China,” said Duncan Clarke, an early advisor to Alibaba and chairman of consulting firm BDA China.
“We know the deal was already in trouble,” he said, “but this difficult development is on the more extreme side of the expected outcome.”
— Evelyn Chen
