Citi UK CEO Tina Lee expects global economic growth to remain resilient this year, telling CNBC that a “recessionary environment” is “not our base case.”
Despite the economic and geopolitical upheaval caused by the Iran conflict, which entered its 60th day on Tuesday, markets continue to behave in an orderly manner, Lee said.
She highlighted the maturation of opportunities across AI, data infrastructure and energy, coupled with a record number of mergers and acquisitions in the first quarter.
But Lee acknowledged on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday that deepening and prolonging the conflict remains a live risk to markets and the economy.
caused by war brent crude oil Prices are now more than $100 per barrel, compared to about $70 in February. If hostilities continue for the remainder of this year and into 2027, there is a risk that oil prices will soar towards $120 or $150.
“That’s a different scenario,” Lee said. Global oil benchmarks rose to $111 a barrel in early trade on Tuesday.
But he emphasized the resilience of the global economy, particularly in the United States, and said he expected growth to remain “fairly resilient” at about 2.7% for the rest of 2026.
“A recessionary environment is not our base case scenario,” he said.
Lee said the resilience of the US economy has been “remarkable” in the face of macro headwinds since the start of the year, adding that AI has led to a “significant growth spurt” while also pinpointing opportunities across data infrastructure and energy.
“We are in the middle of the most important investment cycle in a generation,” she said. “There’s a lot to play with.”
He added: “When you talk to CEOs, they’re equally bullish about the opportunities for their companies, and where the opportunities make a lot of sense strategically, what we’ve seen in the past quarter is that despite these headwinds, we’ve seen record numbers of M&A.”
Mr Lee said North America is an important export market for multinational companies, adding: “The size and scale of that market makes it impossible to ignore.”
Brent crude oil.
He said North America remains an important export market for multinational companies, especially Chinese companies. “The biggest target for any Chinese company in terms of export market is North America.”
Chinese companies are making “remarkable progress” in areas such as advanced robotics and manufacturing, Li added.
She sees opportunities for cooperation, citing clean energy, battery production and financial services.
Mr Lee also cited the UK’s trade mission to China and the establishment of the UK-China Financial Working Group as potential drivers.
“Being able to work with markets like China is a real opportunity for the UK,” she said.
