Drivers drive their vehicles near a large political banner depicting a missile being fired at the back of Iranian demonstrators in solidarity with the government in Tehran’s Variasr Square on April 6, 2026.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Leonie Kidd and I’m from London. Welcome to today’s Daily Open Newsletter.
Even by long weekend standards, a lot has happened since US markets closed last Friday.
News that a deal with Iran was “largely negotiated” sparked a wave of optimism over the weekend, but US President Donald Trump has since quickly said he could “walk away” if the deal is not “great and meaningful.”
A new wave of attacks on Iran by the US military will test negotiations and test the market’s glass-half-open response to recent developments.
What you need to know today
Wall Street futures are rising in early trading after the long weekend on hopes that a resolution to the U.S.-Iran war is within reach. Stocks were closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up more than 300 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also expected to rise.
Crude oil prices became more volatile. Both benchmark prices fell sharply on Monday, but Brent and WTI diverged sharply in early trading on Tuesday. The lack of WTI settlements due to the US holiday has affected trading patterns.
The path to peace remains difficult.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its troops carried out a “self-defense” attack against Iran in the country’s south. CENTCOM targeted missile launch sites and Iranian mine ships.
The move comes after US President Donald Trump said in the US on Monday that negotiations with Iran were “progressing well.” But he warned that “it’s either a big deal for everyone or no deal at all,” threatening to bring things “back to the front and firing, but bigger and stronger than ever.”
Former CIA Director David Petraeus told CNBC that Iran appears to be “blinking” and that a successful peace deal requires the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is critical, as veteran oil market strategist Jeff Currie also told CNBC that oil markets are nearing “minimum operating levels” in Asia, with Europe and the United States expected to face supply shortages in July.
In corporate news, Ferrari has unveiled its first fully electric car, a bold bet for the Italian luxury car maker. CEO Benedetto Vigna told CNBC in an exclusive on international television that the event was “a day when we open a new chapter in our history. A day when we can show the whole world, everyone, that with passion and courage we can do something new and change the way we do things.”
And finally…
When are prediction markets most useful? Evercore ISI has a formula
A large number of short-term markets that ask simple questions with clear solution rules. This is the formula that helps prediction markets predict, according to Evercore ISI strategists.
Led by Julien Emanuel, they found that large contracts produced more reliable probabilities than shallow markets. Similarly, contracts closer to the end date showed higher probabilities compared to long-term contracts.
Despite the growth, they avoided calling prediction markets their North Star.
— Ananya Chettiar
