Two years after Hamas attack fired War in the Gaza Stripthe extremist group has weakened but not defeated, but Israel has clustered enemies across the region, but fails to achieve its main goal, and no one knows how it will end.
On October 7, 2023, the most lethal attacks in Israeli soil caused one of the most devastating military campaigns since World War II and left. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have died, Flattening vast areas of blocked territory It causes hunger Partially.
It sent ripples throughout the region and led Israel to battle Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemeni Hooty RebelsIraq and Syrian extremist groups, and their guardians, Iran, suffered a major loss in A 12-Day War Started by Israel Early this year.
Through it, Hamas held hostages – it was still 48, of which 20 believe Israel is alive – and Maintained impact The decline in undestructed Gaza is largely depopulated.
New Round of Certain Warning Conversation It began this week on a peace plan undertaken by US President Donald Trump. But so far, the two US administrations have failed to end the battle. I’m becoming more and more isolated and Internally split Israel.
Hegemon in isolated regions around the world
Israel is causing great damage to Iran and its allies, emerging as the undoubtedly dominant military force in the Middle East, fully controlling most of Gaza Parts of Lebanon and Syria.
It showed off powerful military and intellectual capabilities in the attack on Hezbollah Use a pocket device that explodes And a long-range strike that took the Iranian general, senior extremist And nuclear scientists.
But that tactical victory was costly.
Israel has become more internationally isolated than it has been in decades. Experts, academics and major rights groups are denounced by genocideif it denies it vigorously, it charges. The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister, accusing them of using hunger as a way of war, they have denied it. Normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries It looks more and more remote.
In addition to years of corruption allegations against Netanyahu and his efforts to overhaul Israel’s judicial, his failure to return hostages has ragedly split the country with weekly public protests and frustration as Israeli wages. Another big attack in Gaza.
The Palestinian state appears farther, despite growing awareness
Hamas said the October 7 attack, in which militants killed around 1,200 people and sought 251, was intended to return the Palestinian cause to the world’s agenda. It somehow managed to do that.
As the war continued, major Western countries joined the majority of the United Nations Recognizing the Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice states that Israel’s control over East Jerusalem and Gaza in the West Bank and Gaza, which were seized in the Middle East War in 1967, was An illegal occupation that must be completed.
But on the ground, Israel further strengthened its control over all the lands. Between the Jordan River and the Mediterraneanfurther boosts Palestinian hope for independence.
According to local health officials, the Gaza attacks killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and expelled 90% of their population of around 2 million. Often multiple times. Israel controls about 75% of its territory The entire city and town are abandoned. Most Palestinians have seen their homes ravaged, their children missed two years of school, and parts of Gaza plunged into hunger. Every time the war ends, it takes years, If not a generationfor Gaza to recover.
On the occupied West BankIsrael has carried out a major military operation that it says aims to eradicate extremists and drive away tens of thousands of people. And it’s expanding rapidly Major projects to divide territory in half And it aims to make it almost impossible to create a viable Palestinian state.
Hamas and Netanyahu hold it all
Many Palestinians are furious with Hamas To cause death and destruction. Many Israelis are pissed at Netanyahu for failing to reach an agreement to bring hostages home after a major sideline of Israel’s biggest security failure.
But it’s too early to count any of them.
In addition to hostages, Hamas has an even stronger guerrilla force, although capable of allowing sporadic attacks. It can still be argued An incredibly expensive victory When swapping hostages for the complete withdrawal of Israel and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Its very survival may be sufficient for the rest of the leadership.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has taken power by meeting the demands of His far-right alliance Continue the war.
He will face elections next year, and could lose if the hostages were not returned, especially if Hamas survives. But he has a strong ally to Trump. Trump may still be able to end the war and take prisoners home. Without a clear leader among Israel’s divided opposition, it may be enough to allow Netanyahu to eliminate yet another narrow victory.
We failed to end the fight with a lockstep with Israel.
January this year There was hope that the war might end.
Trump’s next team was pushing for a ceasefire agreement at the finish line after months of negotiations mediated by President Joe Biden’s administration, Egypt and Qatar. The phased plan was designed to end the war and return the remaining hostages.
In March, Israel lasted two and a half months in Gaza. The truce has ended With a surprising fire. It was not facing a public pushback from Trump, who had the idea of leaving Gaza a month ago Turn it into a tourist destination.
Under both Biden and Trump, the United States provides billions of dollars in military aid, protecting Israel from demands for an international ceasefire, and defending it against allegations of atrocity.
With unwavering support from the US, Netanyahu was able to pursue a “complete victory” over Hamas despite the humanitarian catastrophe. US proposals to end the battle He has been a strong supporter of Israeland Hamas refused to succumb despite its incredible loss.
The latest peace plan From the White House, Hamas calls for immediate release of all remaining hostages and give up their strength and disarm them. In return, Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and retreated from much of Gaza. The US will guarantee an influx of humanitarian aid and ultimately reconstruction, and plans to relocate much of Gaza’s population to other countries will be shelved.
Gaza will be placed under international governance if there is no clear path to unity with the West Bank in the future in Palestine.
Hamas says he is willing to release the hostages and hand over the power to other Palestinians, but other aspects of the plan require further negotiations. Trump and Netanyahu wanted a quick deal, and Israel could once again escalate the war if discussions were dragged down.
Even if the battle can be ended, it is unclear when Gaza can be rebuilt and the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be rebuilt. It’s been before the war for decadesremains volatile as ever.
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Joseph Klaus has been reporting in the Middle East for over 20 years, including several years of being based in Israel and the Palestinian territory.
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