Tel Aviv, Israel
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What undermines this moment’s sense of relief for many oppressed Iranians is that killing Supreme Leader Khamenei is a dangerously simplistic solution to a very complex problem.
Hamanei’s reign was marked by mismanagement and ultimately ended with his trademark repression, one of the bloodiest episodes of violence his regime used to maintain its hold on power.
His ouster sparked celebrations in Tehran, 40 days of official mourning and large pro-regime crowds, as well as a struggle by the regime’s remnants to plan what’s next.
Israeli officials hinted that the attack was rushed to take advantage of a day-to-day opportunity when senior Iranian officials met. And US President Donald Trump appears to have once again reached out to his Venezuelan strategy, suggesting he has a successor in mind, as he named deputy leader Delcy Rodriguez his preferred interlocutor after the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Notably, President Trump, asked late Saturday, declined to say who he thought would play a role in the matter. However, Tehran will soon have to announce a succession plan.
But Iran is less convincing than Venezuela so far.
For 47 years, the theocracy turned into dictatorship and kleptocracy. The majority of the country’s more than 90 million people depend on the government for their livelihood, and minorities are shedding their blood by cooperating with the crackdown on the opposition.
When Assad’s regime in nearby Syria collapsed in late 2024, years of civil war had hollowed out its security forces and left its economy in ruins. Iranian security forces were just retrained in brute force in quelling January’s uprising.
The United States and Israel appear to agree that removing the top echelons of the Iranian regime would put both countries in a better position.
In addition to Khamenei, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iranian Security Council Chairman Ali Shamkhani, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Pakpour were also killed within hours. This is a security elite that has only recently regrouped after the devastation of the 12-day war in June.
However, there are no good examples in history of air operations that easily overthrew a regime and resulted in a replacement favored by the attackers.
Hardliners will compete to fill the void just to survive. They may be reluctant to have the United States and Israel in their crosshairs next, but that fear has not led to a shortage of candidates in the past. Is it possible that a consensus will emerge that in order for authoritarian regimes to endure, they need to make peace with the United States and the region and pretend to be moderates for a while?
perhaps. But that risks projecting a weakness that Tehran is very allergic to.
There is no easy government that President Trump can promote to replace the boxy opposition government.
The shah’s long-deposed successor, Reza Pahlavi, cannot fly into Tehran and take the reins without risking an angry Revolutionary Guard trying to kill him. There is no real opposition left in Iran. As in Caracas, any solution will need to come from within the remnants of the regime.
In many ways, Hamanei’s missteps have made America and Israel’s jobs easier. His repression and economic mismanagement mean that Iran is in desperate need of change in its truisms, and its people yearn to be freer and richer.
The president’s explicit orders to retaliate fiercely in response to these attacks, which appear to have been carried out posthumously, have enraged much of the region, which has attacked neighboring countries that had urged the United States to back off its attacks and is now furious that its own civilians have been exposed to Iranian missile and drone attacks. Iran appears to be continuing to weaken itself, and that is not stopping.
Currently, the significant risk is fractures. No single force won, and a patchwork of violence and celebrations divided Iran and led to a collapse that destabilized not only the country but the region.
President Trump’s limited attention span and allergy to long-term military engagements only heighten this risk. The president lacks the domestic political capital, the electorate’s war preparation, or the theater resources to fight this battle for months.
He also keeps his goals lean and achievable. He could argue that Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and ability to harass the United States have also taken a major hit. Trump never explicitly declared that regime change was his goal, only encouraged it. He can declare victory at any moment of his choosing, regardless of what it means for Iran’s future.
The superior technology, intelligence, and firepower of the United States and Israel enabled them to come up with a quick and easy solution to the persistent Iranian problem. But it still fails to address Iran’s obvious and perhaps insurmountable complexities that have made it a thorn in the U.S. side for half a century.
