Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI Inc., during a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, USA, on Tuesday, September 23, 2025.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Reports that OpenAI plans to privately file for an IPO as soon as Friday have changed market traders’ predictions about which private AI giant will debut on the public market first.
Kalshi traders currently see OpenAI as the favorite to go public before Anthropic, with an 83% chance that OpenAI will get the big payout first.
“Given the ongoing arms race, it’s really important to get into the public markets first,” said Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. “That sets the valuation, and it gives you an advantage because you get to meet investors first while on the road.”
Before the Wall Street Journal’s initial report on the IPO schedule, which was later confirmed by CNBC, traders thought OpenAI had just over a 32% chance of beating its biggest private rival in the public markets.
If the IPO collapses in a polymarket, the chance of Anthropic beating OpenAI increases from 69% to 20%.
The birth of OpenAI’s ChatGPT started the AI bull market in November 2022, but the company has lost some of its luster for investors.
Concerns about the company’s spending, reports that it missed revenue and growth targets, and changes in leadership weighed on investors’ outlook. The newspaper said there was even internal disagreement over the timeline for the company’s initial public offering, with CEO Sam Altman pushing for an earlier listing than CFO Sarah Friar.
At the same time, Anthropic’s enterprise business has seen significant growth in recent months, and the company is reportedly in talks with investors for a new funding round that would value it at $900 billion, higher than OpenAI’s latest valuation.
Investors were attracted to Anthropic’s Claude model, which is constantly updated with new versions. These updates were so closely watched by investors that heightened concerns about how Claude’s model’s new tools would impact existing businesses kept the stock market moving at the beginning of the year.
Reports about a very powerful new model, Claude Mythos, circulated in late March, and Kalshi revealed that Anthropic had a consistent lead over OpenAI in terms of who would be the first to be released to the public. Bloomberg reported around the same time that the company was aiming for an IPO as early as October.
But with an IPO approaching sooner than prediction market traders thought and a court victory against Elon Musk this week, Ives said it may be time for a turnaround.
“It started with a lawsuit,” he said. “And now filing for an IPO is a great one-two punch that starts to put water on the negative fire that has been leveled at them.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
