Geopolitical uncertainty continues this year

We’re only a week away from 2026, but our intentions for the year are already becoming clearer.

Global markets reacted noticeably subdued after U.S. forces attacked Venezuela on Saturday, detaining its leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Most stock exchanges in Asia, Europe and the United States edged higher, with defense and energy stocks gaining. Meanwhile, world leaders acted quickly to secure their positions.

However, there are many questions, especially regarding Venezuelan oil. Although the country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, it is still too early to assess whether tensions between the United States and Venezuela will open the door for American oil companies to invest in the South American country. Chevron is currently the only U.S. oil major operating in the country, and questions about governance, sanctions and political legitimacy remain.

And its influence extends far beyond Caracas. US President Donald Trump has once again turned his attention to Greenland, while Maduro’s arrest has reignited debate over international law and sovereignty and focused on China’s threats against Taiwan.

After a volatile 2025 filled with geopolitical shocks, the start of the new year suggests continuity rather than relief. Everyone, please fasten your seat belts. This could be another wild ride.

Maduro maintains his innocence. The ousted Venezuelan leader and his wife made their first appearance Monday in New York federal court on drug trafficking charges. President Maduro said he had been “abducted” by the U.S. military and was a “prisoner of war.”

The US market rebounded in the aftermath of Venezuela. All three major indexes were up Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new all-time high during trading hours. The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended 0.94% higher.

President Trump’s comments have raised alarm in Denmark. The US president reiterated on Monday that he wants to acquire Greenland for “national security” reasons. The comments sent Denmark, which is responsible for the defense of the autonomous Danish territory, into “full crisis mode.”

Oil companies face huge costs in Venezuela. Wall Street analysts say Chevron has an advantage in rebuilding the country’s energy sector because it is the only major U.S. company operating there. But just maintaining oil production levels of 1.1 million barrels per day will require investments of about $53 billion over the next 15 years, Rystad Energy said.

(PRO) If Vanguard expects higher risk-adjusted returns. Roger Arriaga Diaz, Vanguard’s global head of portfolio construction and chief economist for the Americas, said the firm favors a 40/60 portfolio going into the new year, which is good for investors focused on the short to medium term.

China condemns US actions in Venezuela – despite protecting billions of dollars at risk

China quickly reacted to the US military attack on Venezuela on Saturday night, expressing shock and condemnation. Jicheng Wang, a researcher at the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said the situation raises concerns for the Chinese government.

Chinese companies, most of which are state-owned, have invested $4.8 billion in Venezuela over the past two decades, according to data compiled by U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group.

“China is likely wary of becoming drawn into this conflict, given Venezuela’s limited economic importance to China and little geopolitical proximity,” said Yue Su, chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

— Evelyn Chen