With tensions in the Middle East showing signs of easing, oil prices have fallen sharply as the geopolitical risk premium that had been squeezed into the market begins to fade. Reports from hot zones can be difficult to decipher, so we believe it’s best to use the smartest leading indicator available, market prices, to uncover what’s really going on. In these emotionally volatile market conditions, we ask you to ignore those who claim a crash is imminent. Anyone who is certain of anything, except perhaps that the market will be tradeable tomorrow, is acting out of self-interest to stir up fear and gain more attention. Despite the geopolitical tragedies happening and the barrage of scary headlines that cross the tape when you take a step back, take a deep breath and look at what’s really going on, not what you think is going on. In reality, it’s a range-based market, making it a rather boring market. Case in point: Invesco QQQ Trust, which follows the Nasdaq 100, is at about the same level as it was on October 8, 2025. After the market recovered 58% from its Q1 2025 lows, it has since been trapped in an 8.5% range. Context matters. If you hibernate all fall and winter and wake up on this beautiful 65 degree sunny day in Saratoga Springs, New York, you’ll look at your chart and think, “Wow, I didn’t miss anything.” Amid increasing accumulation, QQQ maintained the lower end of the 8.5% range and the 200-day moving average. Continuing this point: You’ve probably heard about the massive artificial intelligence bubble that’s about to burst, the great rotation into value and circulation, and how to buy gold heading for the hills. Let’s look at semiconductor damage. Not shown in this VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) chart, the semi is up 150% from its Q1 2025 low and only 6.5% off its all-time high. It maintained the $380-$385 pivot zone, turning from resistance in 2025 to support in 2026. The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day and the price is above both moving averages. In my opinion, the market volatility we’ve seen over the past few weeks is a reaction to value, defensive, and cyclical stocks being bid up in anticipation of a Middle East attack. The two charts above, QQQ and SMH, show the relative strength of growth areas in the market and the potential for a sustained rally in the technology market heading into the summer. Following very impressive earnings reports from Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell, we expect tonight’s Oracle earnings to shed even more light on building AI infrastructure. Speaking of Nvidia, we’re looking forward to the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference next week on March 16th, but if geopolitical tensions continue to ease, there could be a renewed focus on AI. Despite having another blockbuster quarter with year-over-year growth of 73% in revenue and 96% in revenue, NVIDIA is in an even longer stock decline than the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is trading at the same level as in August 2025. Earnings per share. Above $190, Nvidia should attempt to break out of the range again, targeting the mid-$200s. Broadcom and Marvel’s participation is included as a good measure to reinforce the idea that, despite the scary geopolitical headlines, the Semi-Finals were merely hibernating, are beginning to wake up, and are likely to run free again once the snow and geopolitical tensions finally thaw. — Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital We offer active portfolio management and regular subscriber updates, similar to the ideas introduced above. Disclosure: Gordon owns Nvidia, Broadcom personally and for clients of his asset management company Inside Edge Capital. All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, its parent or affiliate companies, and may have been previously disseminated on television, radio, the Internet, or another medium. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial assets. The Content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not be appropriate for your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking the advice of your own financial or investment advisor. Click here for full disclaimer.
