Beijing —
Iran’s top diplomat’s visit to Beijing, days before U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the Chinese capital, shines a spotlight on an important issue: Can China play the role of peace broker in the U.S.-Iranian conflict?
Both Tehran and Washington are seeking relief, as a fragile ceasefire and stop-start diplomacy have so far failed to permanently end a war that threatens to cripple the global economy.
And in any case, Beijing is theoretically the obvious candidate to take on the task.
China has long been a close diplomatic and economic ally of Iran, with its allegiance based on shared friction with the United States and hunger for cheap oil. He has also shown an openness to Washington and could listen directly to President Trump during his meeting with leader Xi Jinping next week.
According to Iranian media reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing at this time and expressed high hopes that the Chinese government would be able to stop “violations of international peace and security” during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
President Trump is also likely to cause conflict with President Xi during his planned visit to North Korea. It was once intended to focus on the economic competition between the two countries, but the war with Iran has now overshadowed it.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted as much on Tuesday, telling reporters that he expects China to encourage Iran to ease its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Chinese officials themselves have called for a ceasefire for weeks, and President Xi last month announced a four-point proposal for peace in the Middle East, casting China as a potential peacemaker.
According to Chinese media reports, Foreign Minister Wang reiterated Beijing’s position in his meeting with Araghchi, pledging to continue supporting the start of peace talks and “playing a greater role in restoring peace and tranquility in the Middle East.”
Already, bringing both sides to court within a week is a victory for Mr. Xi, who aims to solidify China’s role as a global power. Mr. Xi would not be in a bad position to seek an easy victory as negotiations with an increasingly unpopular American leader stall in a costly war.
Chinese sources familiar with the matter recently told CNN that Beijing is cautiously watching the months-long conflict with rival Iran as potentially strengthening its negotiating position.
According to these sources, the situation could present a unique opportunity for China to capitalize on the conflict in what is likely to be a competitive midterm election for President Trump, with the president seen as keen to signal tangible wins to American voters, such as large-scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural products and Boeing jets.
However, the extent to which China is prepared to apply pressure to move both sides toward peace is another matter. Mr. Xi is trying to balance the growing economic risks of war with China’s long-term ambitions to replace the United States as a world power.
Can China bring about change in Iran?
While Western conventional wisdom often suggests that China is automatically happy whenever U.S. forces are linked anywhere in the world, there are clear reasons for China to want to see an end to the conflict.
The world’s second-largest economy has been relatively spared from the historic global oil crisis that hit its neighbors, including major US allies in the region, thanks to China’s vast oil reserves, high energy independence, and early transition to green energy.
But as the war drags on, these reserves will dwindle, along with the Xi administration’s energy security priorities. And while there is no shortage yet, China’s economy remains exposed to rising fuel costs, which the government is asking state oil companies to offset some of. The global economic downturn caused by the war will also deal a blow to China’s export-dependent economy.
There are also concerns that a war would negatively impact U.S.-China relations, which Beijing wants to stabilize to reduce friction against its global ambitions.
Analysts say China has continued to buy Iranian oil during the conflict, still importing well over 1 million barrels a day last month, and stocks have already been removed from floating storage in Asia, unaffected by the U.S. blockade of Hormuz.
In recent weeks, the United States has increased economic pressure on Chinese purchases that accounted for more than 90% of Iran’s exports last year, giving Beijing significant economic influence over Iran.
Last month, the U.S. government blacklisted a major Chinese petrochemical company for being a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, but it is China’s largest refinery, which has so far not been hit by the latest blow. In an unprecedented move, the Chinese government ordered domestic companies to disobey sanctions against the business and four other domestic refineries on a U.S. blacklist.
China may hope to deflect these frictions and gain friendship with President Trump by showing that its recent diplomacy with Iran is part of a sincere effort to help the United States end the war.
But analysts are skeptical that Beijing will use its influence to pressure Iran hard enough not to bow to American demands, especially without clear incentives from Washington.
First, Beijing may have little faith in its influence over Tehran, despite its diplomatic allegiances. And while China has suppressed criticism of the United States during the conflict, it has long been argued that the war is a mess for Washington to sort out.
Meanwhile, amid the global oil crisis, China may wield significant economic influence over Iran in the form of oil purchases, but it still needs these barrels as well.
