Karshi and Polimarket.
Gabby Jones Bloomberg | Martin Lelièvre | Getty Images
A lobbying arms race is unfolding in Washington between Calci, Polymarket and the casino and gaming industry, with each side vying for support from lawmakers as prediction markets come under increasing scrutiny from Congress and regulators.
Kalsi’s lobbying spending totaled $990,000 in the first half of 2026, or nearly $1.8 million including the outside firms it hired, according to filings this week. This exceeds the total $1 million the company spent on lobbying throughout 2025, making it the company’s largest spending in a six-month period to date.
But the gambling and casino industry, which is battling the rise of prediction markets, is also increasing its spending on Capitol Hill.
The American Gaming Association, the gambling industry group, is on track to spend $1.39 million on lobbying by 2026, exceeding what it spent in 2025. Including outside companies, the group spent nearly $1.8 million on federal lobbying, a 30% increase from its spending in the first half of 2025. The Cherokee Nation, which owns casinos and other gaming-related businesses, spent $600,000 in the first half of the year. Spending in 2026 will also be paced ahead of spending in 2025.
The firm, which lobbies on behalf of Carsi’s biggest rival, Polymarket, spent $180,000 for clients in the first half of 2026, a figure on pace to match $360,000 in 2025. Polymarket’s base in the Capitol is smaller than Karshi’s. The former has only one lobbying company, while the latter has seven lobbying companies, including an in-house office.
Prediction markets have been mired in political controversy since the beginning of the year, following a series of trades that raised concerns about insider trading ahead of U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on possible gambling based on inside political information, but President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator was suspended after it was revealed that he was under investigation for allegedly using sensitive non-public information to make deals with Calci.
Both Carsi and Polymarket say they have taken steps to root out insider trading on their platforms, but lawmakers have also publicly raised concerns about betting on things like sports, elections and other government actions.
Skepticism about the National Diet Building
Kalsi went on the offensive at the Capitol. The company has hired senior officials from the Biden and Obama administrations to help with its government relations efforts, and counts Donald Trump Jr. as a paid adviser. CEO Tarek Mansour recently spoke on Capitol Hill with Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D.N.J.) in support of legislation aimed at protecting children from online gambling.
Still, prediction markets say they face an uphill battle when it comes to getting the attention of lawmakers. Part of that is due to the fact that the casino gambling industry has had a head start, said Patrick McHenry, a former Republican lawmaker who is now a senior adviser to the Prediction Markets Coalition, an industry group that represents five companies, including Calci.
“A lot of the existing engagement infrastructure on The Hill and in the state comes from the casino industry,” he said in an interview. “Prediction markets are a new entrant to the Washington policy debate and are making great strides in communicating with lawmakers.”
Mr. Carsi declined to comment and deferred to Mr. McHenry.
Lawmakers have introduced a flurry of bills this year to address insider trading in prediction markets and restrict event contracts, including sports, elections and acts of war. Sports contracts make up the largest segment on the platform.
Prediction markets argue that these sports-related event contracts are swaps similar to financial market swaps, such as gold or corn contracts, and therefore should continue to be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Critics of the company’s sports products argue that these markets are nothing more than sports betting and are typically regulated by states.
Senators echoed this line at a Commerce Committee hearing in May, with a bipartisan chorus arguing that these deals are nothing more than a gamble. During Tuesday’s hearing on sports-related event contracts hosted by a subcommittee of the House Agriculture Committee, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R.S.D.) took a more conciliatory tone.
“For many Americans, these products look a lot like sports betting. For others, they are innovative financial products that help aggregate information and provide insight into future events,” he said. “Drawing that line and determining whether our nation’s laws and regulators are equipped to do that is the central challenge before us today.” However, he added that the CFTC is not a gambling regulator.
The bill is unlikely to become law in 2026
Prediction market legislation is unlikely to pass this year as Congress races toward November elections, but companies are eyeing the possibility that smaller proposals could be incorporated into a broader legislative package by the end of the year.
TD Cowen policy analyst Jarrett Seiberg said the focus continues to be on the CFTC, the federal regulator for event contract exchanges. The CFTC released proposed rules on prediction markets in June, and the first draft is currently undergoing a public comment period.
And while prediction markets continue to face tough talk from lawmakers, Cyberg said the lack of legislative action is exactly what the platforms are hoping for.
“These companies wouldn’t want Congress to do anything,” he said. “And so far, Congress hasn’t done anything. So Congress appears to be on the winning side of this lobbying battle.”
Prediction markets also remain under intense scrutiny over efforts to crack down on insider trading following an investigation launched by House Oversight and Reform Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.).
However, a person familiar with the commission’s investigation said that when they briefed the commission recently, the two platforms had different perceptions of the matter. The person, who requested anonymity to discuss details of the investigation, said Mr. Carsi’s press conference was well-received. Polymarket came under increased scrutiny because it chose to send an outside lawyer rather than a company representative to the briefing.
A spokesperson for Polymarket said the decision stemmed from a misunderstanding and the company was keen to move on from the incident. The spokesperson added that the company “remains committed to continued collaboration and transparency” with the commission.
Mr. Carsi was scheduled to brief the committee this week, according to a person familiar with the committee’s investigation, and was also scheduled to explain how President Trump’s former teleprompter operator used sensitive non-public information on the platform to trade in the “mention market,” a contract in which speculators trade on whether to say certain words at an event or speech. According to people familiar with the matter, the company plans to explain how its policy views Gabriel Perez’s involvement in such transactions.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
