Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan appeared poised to score a clear victory in Sunday’s closely watched parliamentary elections, but the vote results now defy easy geopolitical deals.
In results released on Monday, Armenia’s Central Election Commission said Pashinyan’s ruling People’s Contract Party secured 49.81% of the vote, Reuters reported. This gives Mr. Pashinyan a significant lead over the opposition Strong Armenia party, but it means that it could lock him in against Russia, the country’s long-time security guarantor and trading partner, and deny him the sweeping powers he needs to negotiate a lasting peace with Azerbaijan, Armenia’s neighbor and longtime enemy.
After early results came in, Pashinyan declared victory, but the final distribution of seats in parliament is unclear. Small parties need to pass the 4% threshold to win seats, and at this stage it seems unlikely that Pashinyan will be able to secure a two-thirds constitutional majority to push through the most ambitious parts of his agenda.
Armenia’s election was widely seen as a referendum on the direction of the country’s foreign policy. Pashinyan won the support of US President Donald Trump by pledging to secure peace with Azerbaijan, normalize relations with Turkey, and strengthen ties with the European Union.
Ahead of the vote, President Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Pashinyan “has my full and complete support for re-election on June 7, 2026. With Nikol’s help, we will lift the United States, Armenia, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to greater heights than ever before. We will make (Armenia) great again.”
President Trump also emphasized efforts to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan to the negotiating table as part of his ambition to be known as a global peacemaker. And, with a bit of branding, part of a potential agreement between the two countries would include granting the United States exclusive rights to a transportation corridor through Armenia, known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).
But Armenia’s pivot to the West has irritated the Kremlin. In the run-up to the election, Russia increased pressure on its allies by imposing a ban on imports of Armenian products, including fresh fruit, flowers and spirits. The signal from Moscow was clear. Stronger ties with Brussels and Washington come at a price.
In pre-election remarks, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to Russia’s “special relationship with the Armenian people” and subtly warned Armenia against a path to closer European integration.
“We’re living through everything that’s going on with Ukraine right now,” he said. “And how did it start? It started with Ukraine joining or trying to join the EU.”
President Putin was extracting a piece of history there. Russia’s first direct military intervention in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and the start of a proxy war in the Donbas region in 2014, began after Ukrainians ousted President Viktor Yanukovych in street protests against his government’s decision to suspend negotiations on a trade deal with the EU.
Armenia has been gradually falling out of Russia’s orbit in recent years. However, after Armenia suffered a crushing military defeat against Azerbaijan in 2023, the movement accelerated further, and Azerbaijan launched an offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway enclave with an ethnic Armenian majority. The military operation displaced more than 100,000 Armenians and forced Armenia to drastically reconsider its security ties with Moscow, saying it had failed to protect the enclave from Azerbaijan’s invasion. In response, Pashinyan’s government froze participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
In recent months, Pashinyan has pushed to strengthen ties with the EU, pursuing a reform agenda aimed at meeting EU membership criteria and hosting the first EU-Armenia summit last month. Armenia also hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a move that further irritated the Kremlin, especially since Pashinyan and Zelensky spoke in English rather than Russian, the former Soviet Union’s lingua franca.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in a reading of her phone call with Pashinyan on June 4, said Russia’s economic restrictions on Armenia were “nothing but economic coercion” and promised EU support and trade relief for some Armenian products.
“By extending export restrictions on Armenian products, Moscow is weaponizing economic ties for political pressure,” von der Leyen said. “We are well aware of this strategy. This is why Europe stands firm against Armenia.”
But Pashinyan has also sought to maintain a balance with Russia. The Prime Minister of Armenia visited Moscow in April and met with President Putin. On June 1, Pashinyan’s birthday, he spoke by phone with the Russian leader.
“Mr. Pashinyan has done a lot of work to keep Russia in line,” said Joshua Kucera, senior South Caucasus analyst at the International Crisis Group. “He’s really trying to be multi-vector.”
In an interview with CNN before Sunday’s election results, Kucera insisted that Armenian government officials want good relations with Russia despite the shift away from dependence on Russia for security. He also said that Russia’s stance toward Armenia could soften after the election.
“I don’t know how much of this is substantive as opposed to rhetorical,” he said.
And Armenia’s path to further integration with Europe is not expected to be easy, observers say.
“What the Kremlin is signaling to the Armenian people and political elite is a warning that following the path to Europe at the expense of ignoring Russian interests comes at a cost that will be determined only by the Russian government. It would be naive and analytically superficial to claim that the Armenian government was able to increase its engagement with Europe, although the concrete results are not yet visible.”
“Furthermore, Armenian public opinion has increased similar criticism of Europe, especially in the wake of the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, a biblical catastrophe for the Armenian people and European inaction in the face of it,” Ter Matevosyan added.
It remains to be seen how Mr. Pashinyan will advance his policies, particularly regarding pushing for constitutional reforms that Azerbaijan is demanding as part of a permanent peace deal.
Pashinyan claimed victory at a press conference early Monday morning, saying Armenians “voted for regional prosperity and cooperation. We hope this will elicit a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan,” according to Reuters.
But Pashinyan’s pro-Russian rivals have also condemned the election results. Russian state news agency RIA Novosti quoted Aram Vardevanyan, head of the party Strong Armenia, founded by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samber Karapetyan, as saying that numerous violations were observed during the election.
Therefore, whether the opposition will be able to contest the results remains a challenge for Armenia today.
