Anthropic’s IPO is first big test of AI boom valuation

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This week was dominated by hype surrounding SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI’s highly anticipated IPOs.

When Elon Musk’s SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, valuing the company at a record $1.77 trillion, investors were left with one overriding question. The question is, “Was it justified?”

The same question now hangs over Anthropic and OpenAI.

First Blood to Anthropic. In a fierce race to become the world’s best AI lab, the company this week took a big step toward taking rival OpenAI public.

Anthropic could be looking to capitalize on the huge momentum it’s seen in recent months. The company’s valuation reached $965 billion, with a reported revenue run rate of $47 billion through the end of May.

After a public battle with the U.S. Department of Defense in February, the company secretly filed an IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, capping a remarkable few months for Anthropic.

The listing, along with OpenAI’s move toward an eventual IPO, will test demand for pure-play frontier AI companies that have so far avoided the cold light of public markets.

“Humanity’s confidential S-1 filing marks the beginning of what will be the most scrutinized initial public offering in the history of technology,” said Harrison Rolfes, an analyst at PitchBook. But the number that decides everything is gross profit, not the $965 billion valuation or the $47 billion revenue run rate, he added.

This number is very important because it refers to the percentage of revenue that remains after paying the huge costs of providing AI services.

“Nobody outside of Anthropic has seen[gross margins]and this will either justify or destroy the entire narrative that the private market has been pricing in for three years,” Rolfes said.

Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, told CNBC that Anthropic’s unprecedented growth underpins the valuation. He added that the company “seems to be leading” the market for frontier AI models as well.

But Luria said very well-funded competitors competing in the same market, such as Google, Meta, OpenAI and SpaceX, could break that lead. “Much of the current use is for testing and experimentation, and that may not last.”

Either way, this filing is expected to have far-reaching implications beyond Anthropic.

“This disclosure not only reprices private competitors, but also provides insight for all companies looking to evaluate and price the future costs of their intelligence,” said Eric Goodness, deputy analyst at Gartner.

Anthropic’s filing, along with SpaceX’s filing, which is targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation, is likely to be the largest concentration of capital ever brought to market at the same time, Rolfes said.

“2026 will either be the most important IPO cycle since the dot-com era, or the most expensive lesson in narrative and fundamentals the public markets have ever taught.”

The European Commission on Wednesday proposed a raft of measures aimed at strengthening homegrown chips, AI and cloud services as the European Union scrambles to develop its technological sovereignty amid heavy reliance on products and services from the United States and China.

Uber will cut its human resources staff by 23% in an effort to streamline operations under new president Jill Hazelbaker.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans to IPO at a fixed price of $135 per share for a valuation of $1.77 trillion, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

Anthropic announced Tuesday that 150 more partners will now have access to Mythos, a powerful AI model that has proven adept at finding software vulnerabilities.

Fintech startup Ramp is seeing business boom as companies look to its software to rein in AI spending. Its current valuation is $44 billion.

broadcomThe company’s stock price fell sharply on Thursday after the company reported lower-than-expected revenue in its second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday. Investors were hoping for strong prospects from AI.

The company, which designs and manufactures AI chips customized to other technology names, led the broader sector decline as investors fled the semiconductor space.