After more than four years on the front lines in Ukraine, Officer Kirillo Bondarenko finally started to feel a change. “We see and feel how the mood of the Russian troops on the front lines is changing. They are exhausted,” Bondarenko told CNN.
“We succeeded in turning the tide,” Bondarenko, a member of Ukraine’s Lazars Group unmanned air systems unit currently fighting near Zaporizhzhia, told CNN.
He’s not the only one who feels that way.
Last month, Ukraine succeeded in liberating more land than Russia captured, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor. This is the first time Moscow has suffered a net loss of territory since Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s southern Kursk region in August 2024.
Although the area of territory liberated by Ukraine is still very small, Russia still controls almost 20% of Ukraine’s land, but so far Kiev seems to have the upper hand.
This is a problem for Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. President Putin has always maintained that Russia’s victory in the war is inevitable, as Russian forces continue to occupy more territory in Ukraine and sooner or later will occupy the entire Eastern Donbass region.
This narrative has always been flawed, given how slow and incredibly costly Russia’s advance has been since its first full-scale invasion in 2022, but it has done some damage to Ukraine’s cause. At times, even US President Donald Trump has appeared to be in favor of the war, declaring that Russia was winning the war and famously telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year that he “doesn’t have a card”.
“The premise of Putin’s negotiation tactics is to use this perception warfare to convince the West that there is no point in supporting Ukraine and that they should press Ukraine to make concessions to meet all of Russia’s demands now,” ISW Russia deputy team leader Christina Harward told CNN.
“This really punches a hole in the whole story,” she added.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on Tuesday that the past few months had been “record-breaking” in terms of Kiev’s successes on the front.
“We eliminated 35,000 Russians in both April and March…Russia does not have enough troops to continue offensive operations. Ukrainian forces are wearing out the Russians,” he said.
Western officials, citing intelligence data, said Russian casualties were around 30,000 to 35,000 per month.
Ukraine’s recent success can be largely attributed to its current drone advantage. Ukraine has focused on short-range attacks on Russian positions along the front lines and long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, but has recently stepped up medium-range attacks targeting Russian logistics.
“We’re seeing a really dramatic increase in the number of these attacks by Ukrainians,” Howard said. “It is affecting Russia’s logistics. Given that Russia is now under constant threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, it will significantly threaten, slow and impede Russian logistics.”
President Zelenskiy said in one of his nightly speeches last week that conducting medium-range strikes against Russia’s military logistics, from warehouses and command posts to air defense systems, is the country’s top priority, and Ukraine is ramping up contracts and production to sustain that effort.
Soldiers on the front lines are seeing medium-range attacks making a difference.
A senior member of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which goes by the call sign “Vankir,” told CNN that despite “continuous” Russian attacks in the Zaporizhzhya direction, Ukraine has managed to regain partial control of the region occupied by Russia several months ago.
“We have many different forces deployed in our field. This part of the front is held together thanks to the combined efforts of all our defense forces, from the infantry holding positions to the drones constantly operating and attacking the enemy,” he told CNN.
The front lines are now saturated with drones, making it nearly impossible for either side to take action. While the Ukrainians struggle to liberate as much land as they want, immobility is more damaging to the Russian military, which can no longer advance as slowly as before.
Instead, they are trying to invade areas currently under Ukrainian control and create the illusion of constant progress, analysts say. It may be possible to raise the Russian flag in the no-man’s land that is the current front line, but it will not be able to maintain that position for long.
“The Russians constantly report to the command that they have captured various villages, but in reality they do not exist. We are constantly driving them out of there. Our medium-range attacks, which we carry out continuously, are a great help in this regard,” Bondarenko said.
This strategy is most visible in some of the most hotly contested areas on the front lines, such as Pokrovsk, a once strategically important Ukrainian shipping hub. When Russia finally succeeded in taking control of the city in December, almost two years after the first attempt, there were fears in Kiev that this would lead to further advances. But the Russian army is stuck and unable to advance.
Ukraine’s recent successes are not limited to the front.
Kiev has sought to limit Russia’s benefits from rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, conducting attacks deep into Russian territory and targeting oil and gas infrastructure and other key assets.
This helped limit the windfall for Moscow from rising oil prices, but it also brought the war closer to the public.
Dmytro, a drone pilot with Ukraine’s 79th Brigade, who requested anonymity and only his first name, told CNN that the reality of daily life on the front is “a roller coaster of emotions. Every tactical victory in Kiev boosts morale, but those fighting on the front are always worried about their loved ones back home.”
Last year, Russia significantly stepped up missile and drone attacks on cities across Ukraine, targeting energy facilities and other civilian facilities. Last year was the deadliest for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with more than 2,500 killed in 2025, according to the United Nations. The first four months of this year were even deadlier, with more civilians killed each month than in the same month last year, according to UN data.
Dmytro said many Ukrainians feel a sense of justice when attacks in Russia’s hinterlands bring the realities of war closer to the Russian people.
“When you attack Russian cities with buildings and factories, Russians realize that there is a war,” he said. “And later that day, we came under heavy attack in multiple locations, with many casualties. . . . It’s just the chaos of a never-ending war.”
While Ukraine has scored some tactical victories in recent months, Russia has also taken steps it believes will hamper its efforts, such as disabling Telegram, an encrypted messenger app widely used by front-line soldiers for military communications.
This comes shortly after Ukraine successfully persuaded Elon Musk’s SpaceX to deny Russia access to its Starlink satellite-based internet service. Even the most pro-war Russian military bloggers were critical of Telegram’s decision.
At the same time, Russian observers say the war is becoming increasingly unpopular among Russians. The economy is weak, people are complaining about internet disruption, and Ukraine’s frequent attacks on targets deep within the country are worrying some people.
Human losses are increasing day by day. Last week, opposition Russian news outlets Mediazona and Meduza released new estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine, saying as many as 352,000 Russians have been killed in the four years since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion. The Kremlin did not comment on the figures.
It is estimated that between 100,000 and 150,000 people have died in Ukraine since the start of the war. Neither side has released official casualty figures, and CNN cannot independently verify the death toll, but most international experts generally agree on the estimate.
The signs are positive for Ukraine, and morale is certainly higher in Ukraine than it was a few months ago, but many remain cautious. Spring is now in full bloom, and there are concerns that the new leaves could obstruct the visibility of Ukrainian drone operators and provide more cover for Russian intruders.
Kiev has had successes in the past, including a large-scale counterattack in the summer and fall of 2022 and an invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, but it has not won the war against Ukraine.
Ukraine may not have won so far, but it has lost far less than Russia.
