Beijing —
When I began covering U.S.-China relations as a young journalist in the late 1990s, the points of conflict between the two countries, especially during high-level talks, often boiled down to the three T’s: Tiananmen, Tibet, and Taiwan.
The first two T’s refer to the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters and to the Chinese-controlled Himalayan region once ruled by the exiled Dalai Lama, and both are tied to China’s human rights record.
Moving on to the latest meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which took place in Beijing this week. In the nearly 10 years since President Trump’s last trip, and Joe Biden never being here during his presidential term, the themes of these summits have evolved to the point where three different T’s have risen to the top of the agenda: tariffs, technology, and Taiwan (this time with Tehran added as a fourth T).
Taiwan, an island democracy that Beijing claims as its own, remains in the “most important” category from China’s perspective, but other priorities have shifted from values-based issues to trade and economics.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a vocal critic of China’s human rights record for which he was sanctioned by Beijing, has remained silent on the issue as America’s top diplomat. Instead, the cabinet member leading the charge in steering the world’s most important bilateral relationship is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who met with China’s Treasury secretary in Seoul ahead of the Beijing summit.
The transformed power relations are here to stay, as Mr. Xi, China’s most powerful communist leader since Chairman Mao Zedong’s death 50 years ago, continues to tighten his grip on all aspects of the country, rebuilding the economy and military with the unfettered political will and state resources that characterize a one-party dictatorship.
However, many argue that today’s global geopolitical situation surrounding U.S.-China relations is in no small part the result of President Trump’s own actions, and that it is tilted in China’s favor.
This trend started during the president’s first term but has intensified since he returned to the White House in early 2025. By now, President Trump may find it difficult to change his nickname on Chinese social media: “Nation-Building Trump.” This is a subtle criticism of President Trump’s ability to push China on the world stage through his actions.
President Trump is seen by many to have helped China score not just strategically but also morally by upending decades of international trade norms and security alliances, not to mention starting a war with Iran that seemed to be in almost no one’s interest.
As recent surveys have shown, leaders of America’s enemies and allies alike are flocking to Beijing to strengthen or mend relations with China, while opinions around the world, even Americans’, are increasing President Xi’s reputation for China.
The Chinese public, exposed to official messages and state media coverage of the chaos and division President Trump has caused at home and abroad, appears convinced that the United States is a declining empire bent on halting China’s rise.
It may be a cliché that when the United States finds itself in a new quagmire somewhere outside the Middle East or the Indo-Pacific region, China benefits. However, this cliché has a basis in fact. The Iran war has diverted U.S. focus and resources and depleted military supplies, especially as China controls the global supply of rare earths essential for weapons production.
While oil prices remain volatile, China’s stockpiles and, more importantly, its early and strong pivot to green energy make it better protected than other countries from short-term disruptions. This could translate into bargaining power at the negotiating table, and President Trump will almost certainly ask President Xi to put more pressure on Iran, one of Beijing’s closest partners.
Apart from the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, China actually faces other economic headwinds, from self-defeating price competition in the manufacturing and services sectors to stubbornly weak domestic consumption and still high youth employment. Facing a population crisis marked by low birth rates, Mr. Xi’s hands may seem tied, but he could easily spend billions on American agricultural products and Boeing jets to get President Trump to promote the summit’s “products” ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
And what about the idea of a “trade commission” that Trump officials are proposing to manage bilateral trade? The Chinese are masters of a vast bureaucracy with well over 7 million civil servants, and creating another council at the request of the United States may just be a “win-win.”
What Xi refuses to touch on is structural, which is exactly what Washington has long insisted on giving Beijing an unfair trade advantage.
Despite U.S. export restrictions, China has made significant progress on several fronts. This is partly due to a top-down system that ensures that policies and funds are directed where Xi wants them to go, but also partly due to President Trump’s actions (e.g., cuts in research funding and a less welcoming U.S. environment led to the repatriation of Chinese talent who once worked in U.S. laboratories and companies).
Whether it’s China’s electric cars or humanoid robots, underlying viral videos of Batmobile-like cars and breakdancing droids lie steady progress toward reducing dependence on fossil fuels in the face of an automated workforce to combat climate change (and war-induced oil shocks) and a shrinking workforce.
Trump likes to brag about his friendship with Xi, but the Chinese strongman is not known for being sentimental, and since taking power more than a decade ago he has fired a number of longtime disciples and allies, most recently firing a supposed childhood friend as commander-in-chief amid a major purge of the 2 million-strong military.
But time is on Xi’s side, even given the flaws with the system and his decisions that have upset some China watchers. He is widely expected to be sworn in for a precedent-breaking fourth term when the ruling Communist Party holds its next congress in autumn 2027. He’s 74 years old, but he’s still younger than Trump 2.0 and Biden were when he took office.
