Robin Kolbenbach, CEO of Algol Heraeus, holds one kilogram of silver and gold bars at Algol Heraeus’ factory in Mendrisio, Switzerland, on July 13, 2022.
Dennis Bariboos | Reuters
The rally that pushed gold and silver to record highs in 2025 could accelerate again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market participants told CNBC as prices rose on Thursday.
spot gold It rose 1.2% to $4,750 an ounce early Thursday on hopes that the United States and Iran may be close to a deal to end their 69-day war.
spot gold
spot silver
Gold and silver both hit record highs in 2025, rising 66% and 135% respectively over the year. However, 2026 saw more volatile trading, with silver futures taking their biggest single-day hit at the end of January since the 1980s, and gold falling another 10% from January highs.
Since the outbreak of war between the US and Iran on February 28, gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of turmoil has come under pressure as some of the factors that underpinned its rise have been called into question.
Ross Norman, CEO of precious metals website Metals Daily, said the possibility of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar due to higher oil prices and traders closing out positions have all contributed to the recent decline, particularly as the yellow metal entered the dispute “significantly overbought.”
He told CNBC that it gave dealers a reason to take profits and gave traders a reason to consolidate the market by selling the best performing assets.
Francis Tan, chief Asia strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that the property was “pretty useful” during the market turmoil in March.
“If you look at March when stocks were selling, for investors who had some allocation to gold during that period, they still had pretty good returns in gold and may even be able to take gold off the table to make up for some of the equity losses.
“So gold as a safe haven certainly played its role.”
During the conflict, gold traded against both oil prices and the US dollar.
“Both the dollar and gold rose, with the former seeing hot money flows amidst energy supply disruptions, while the dollar rose on safe capital flows,” Norman added. “The peace deal signals that these tailwinds will ease, and we are seeing it now. It is as if the handbrake has been released from gold and silver.”
Where next?
BNP Paribas Fortis Chief Strategy Officer Philippe Gissels has long been bullish on gold and silver, and even as volatility continues to dominate precious metals markets, his belief that there is more upside ahead for the metals has remained steadfast.
He told CNBC on Thursday that he sees the decline in gold and silver prices as a “consolidation phase.”
“Precious metals have shown a strong correlation with equities this time, with both being hit primarily by concerns about rising interest rates due to inflation,” Gissels said. “In our world, interest rates are like gravity. When interest rates rise, the gravity increases and pulls down all assets, including precious metals.”
As the Iran war drags on, raising warnings of price shocks and stunted economic growth, markets are starting to price in a halt to the monetary easing cycle in various major economies, with some central banks expected to raise interest rates to avoid the impact of soaring energy prices.
But optimism resurfaced on Wednesday following reports that the United States and Iran were close to a peace deal. Gissels noted that precious metals are now recovering along with equities.
“We expect the long-term bull market in gold and silver to resume, with the metals reaching all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, perhaps this year,” he told CNBC.
Once the fog of war lifts, investors will return to the market for gold and silver.
Philip Gissels
Chief Strategy Officer of BNP Paribas Fortis
Gissels said Thursday that all the factors that brought gold and silver to this point are “still in full play.”
“Central banks and governments will continue to diversify from U.S. government paper into gold,” he told CNBC. “We live in an environment of structurally high inflation, and we need to hold real assets. Precious metals are clearly part of that.[And]once the fog of war lifts, investors will return to the gold and silver markets.”
He argued that the decline in gold and silver prices in recent months is “not the end, but merely a lull in what will likely remain the strongest and longest bull market in gold and silver history.”
Paul Williams, managing director of gold and silver supplier Salomon Global, told CNBC in an email Thursday that the war is still going on and it’s difficult to predict, especially for silver, which is more volatile. However, like Gissels, he said silver prices are still supported by the same fundamental factors that drove the rally in 2025.
“While demand for green technology continues to be strong, the supply of physical silver remains tight,” he said. “The US-Iran conflict has only highlighted the strategic case for solar power. AI-related demand remains large and growing, putting further pressure on an already tight supply-demand balance.”
Silver is used for a wide range of industrial purposes and is an essential ingredient in products from computers and mobile phones to solar panels and cars. Williams said short-term volatility is likely to continue until a permanent deal between the US and Iran is formalized, but prices should be supported in the long term.
“We expect to see further upside and bullish conditions as more people seek the safety and security of holding physical assets outside the traditional financial system,” he said.
“If a peace deal is concluded, silver is most likely to benefit from improving business confidence, solid industrial demand, and increased investor risk appetite. If negotiations fail, the initial safe-haven movement will likely be led by gold, but the tight physical silver market could quickly catch up.”
