European Union Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said on Tuesday that Europe would face a tough summer with the possibility of fuel shortages and other oil-related problems, and that even the best-case scenario would be tough.
“I have to say very frankly that even in the best-case scenario, it’s not a very good case,” he said at an event in Madrid, Spain. Even if the Iran war ended today and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened (not a very realistic prospect), “it would take more than a few years to return to current production levels,” he added.
When asked about the option of imposing a windfall tax on oil and gas companies to soften the blow to consumers, as the EU did in 2022 during the Ukraine-Russia war, Jorgensen ruled out that possibility.
“With oil, it’s a little different,” he says. Compared to Russian natural gas, Middle Eastern oil takes “weeks” to be transported to Europe.
“My prediction is that it’s definitely going to be a difficult summer… There could be problems securing jet fuel supplies and maybe later diesel as well,” he said, noting that airlines have closed some routes to reduce demand.
It’s difficult to say what the worst-case scenario will be, but he offered a grim prediction. “If this continues for months or even years, we will see a whole new world order, with very severe economic consequences, perhaps far beyond just the energy sector.”
