tel aviv —
The phone call that US President Donald Trump had expected did not materialize, but it left little doubt about what would happen next.
On Thursday morning, President Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. It was supposed to be the first direct contact between the leaders of neighboring countries with no diplomatic relations in decades. President Trump declared it would provide “a little bit of breathing room.”
But Aoun rejected the call against the backdrop of the fierce war between Israel and Iran’s proxy Hezbollah.
Trump wasn’t waiting for the conversation to happen.
Just hours later, President Trump announced a ceasefire would begin at midnight. And Prime Minister Netanyahu had little choice but to comply. This is the latest example of a pattern in which President Trump’s declarations align with perhaps the most vocal international supporters and force Prime Minister Netanyahu to make important strategic decisions based on the permission of the US president. Prime Minister Netanyahu routinely praises the close cooperation between the United States and Israel, and therefore between himself and President Trump, but at a critical moment, President Trump forced Netanyahu’s hand.
Less than a week later, Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed that the war with Hezbollah was still on. “We’re still fighting them,” he said. “It’s not over yet,” and on Wednesday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said he had just approved plans for further wars in Lebanon and Iran.
But without President Trump’s approval, Netanyahu has little room to maneuver. The temporary ceasefire is set to last 10 days, but it is clear that President Trump wants it to continue. “It has been my honor to resolve nine wars around the world, and this is the tenth,” he boasted on social media.
At a security cabinet meeting Wednesday night, Israeli leaders discussed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. But no vote was taken, and there was no acknowledgment that the end of the war could be just days away. Prime Minister Netanyahu reconvened his security cabinet for remote consultations on Thursday night, just before President Trump announced the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Israelis, politicians and residents alike, learned about the ceasefire from President Trump’s social media posts, not from Prime Minister Netanyahu.
“President Trump has become the last arbiter, if not the only arbiter, at this stage of a war that was largely persuaded by Prime Minister Netanyahu to enter,” said Amos Harel, a military analyst at Haaretz. “Just as President Trump forced an end to the previous 12-day war against Iran in June, he has now imposed a temporary ceasefire on Iran and Lebanon.”
Forced Prime Minister Netanyahu to take action multiple times
In total, President Trump has reached out to Netanyahu on at least five occasions, including two wars with Iran. The US president pressured Netanyahu for a ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and forced Netanyahu to call Qatar and apologize for the failed Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Doha. Lebanon is just the latest example.
And in both cases, Israel fell short of the decisive victory it had hoped for…and that Prime Minister Netanyahu had promised. In Gaza, Hamas firmly controls half of the coastal area not occupied by Israel. In Lebanon, Hezbollah remains a formidable threat capable of launching drones and rockets at Israel. In Iran, the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now that of his son, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
The Israeli military has expanded its territorial control on each front, holding more land in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. And, at least for now, there is no real pressure from the White House to withdraw Israeli troops. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, these lands represent a deeper security zone that Israel may hold for years. However, they are far from winning.
Israel’s opponents were undoubtedly weakened, but survived.
Dany Sitrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said Iran will enter the next round of negotiations from a position of strength. “Given its demonstrated willingness and ability to impose significant costs on its neighbors and the global economy, the Iranian government is unlikely to make concessions under pressure alone, even if threats from the U.S. government escalate,” Citrinović said on social media.
On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that he had agreed to a temporary ceasefire “at the request of my friend President Trump.” But he warned that Israel was prepared to resume war. “One of our hands holds a weapon, and the other is stretched out in peace.”
Trump will have none of it. Twenty minutes later, he took to social media again to say: “Israel will no longer bomb Lebanon. Bombing is prohibited by the US. Enough is enough!!!”
