Traders communicate offers in the S&P options trading pit at the CBOE Global Markets Exchange on March 31, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Leonie Kidd and I’m from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
S&P’s erasure of all Iran war-related losses marks an interesting moment when market sentiment meets geopolitical reality.
The topic in the newsroom this morning was why Wall Street rallied and oil prices fell despite what were considered very tenuous signs of diplomatic progress.
I leave it up to the reader to decide whether investors have shifted from a state of panic to pricing in the future, or whether there are risks to being complacent.
What you need to know today
Stocks on Wall Street are making a comeback, with Monday’s gains erasing the S&P 500’s losses since the start of the Iran war. In early trading Tuesday, U.S. futures were stable while oil prices were falling.
The upturn in risk sentiment appears to be driven by expectations that a diplomatic solution remains on the table.
Vice President J.D. Vance said Monday it was up to the Islamic Republic to decide whether to take next steps in peace talks with the United States, after returning from a failed weekend of negotiations with Iran.
“I really think the ball is in Iran’s court whether we have further talks, whether we end up reaching an agreement, because we have a lot of things on the table,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News.
He stressed that if the U.S.’s “red lines” against Iran’s nuclear program are followed, “this could be a very good deal for both countries.”
This is optimistic considering there has been little progress through diplomatic channels so far. However, the market may be driven by a broader perspective.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wall Street’s resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions shows investors are focusing more on interest rates, a key driver of stock valuations, than on the Iran war itself.
“I think I was remiss in bringing up the power of low interest rates, because that’s why cows keep winning when you think they should be slaughtered,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Let’s not overthink it. If interest rates had skyrocketed, this market would be very different.”
“But history is ignored and ignored,” he said.
Outside the United States, China’s export growth slowed in March, while imports posted the strongest growth in more than four years, as manufacturers grappled with soaring commodity and energy prices due to supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflict.
China’s customs statistics on Wednesday showed export growth at its slowest pace in six months.
In corporate news, luxury conglomerate and industry standard-bearer LVMH reported quarterly revenue Monday that fell short of expectations as the industry begins to unravel the fallout from the Middle East wars and its impact on stock prices.
LVMH said in a statement that the dispute had a 1% negative impact on organic growth in the quarter.
JPMorgan, Citigroup, and BlackRock, to name a few, are announcing even bigger earnings today.
— Leonie Kidd
And finally…
President Trump deletes real social image that depicts him as Jesus: ‘That was me as a doctor’
President Donald Trump deleted a Truth Social post Monday morning that featured an image of himself appearing to be Jesus Christ after receiving backlash.
“What I posted was me as a doctor and I thought it had something to do with the Red Cross as an employee of the Red Cross, which we support,” Trump told reporters at the White House, denying claims he had intended to dress up as Jesus.
President Trump added, “Only ‘fake news’ would think of something like that.”
— Dan Mangan
