Time to buckle up. Earnings season is returning, but hopes for a durable solution to the Iran war faced a setback last weekend, creating new uncertainty for the trading week ahead. Here’s a closer look at the three big things we’re watching over the next five days. 1. Iran War: This weekend’s U.S.-Iranian peace talks in Pakistan failed after a U.S. delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance left Islamabad without an agreement to codify a two-week ceasefire and make it long-term. Vance said at a news conference that the main sticking point is Iran’s unwillingness to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. In a social media post Sunday morning, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy would “begin the process of blocking any vessels attempting to enter or exit” the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for about 20% of global oil exports in peacetime. Since the war broke out on February 28, Iran has restricted traffic in the strait, leading to soaring oil prices due to supply disruptions. Even after a temporary ceasefire was reached last week, oil tankers did not immediately resume sailing. One reason for this is that Iran has reportedly failed to detect all of the mines it has laid in the strait. The United States began a demining mission on Saturday, according to U.S. Central Command. The hope for investors this weekend was that peace talks would be constructive and lead to progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As far as we know as of Sunday morning, neither of those boxes has been properly checked. As we have throughout the war, we will look to the oil market this week as a barometer of how traders and investors view the possibility of a solid resolution. 2. Earnings: When banks start reporting, earnings season is officially here (though we often wonder if it’s ever really over). Three club names are on the paperwork this week. Before the bell on Monday you’ll see Goldman Sachs, and on Tuesday morning you’ll see our new names: Wells Fargo and Johnson & Johnson. For Goldman Sachs, there are two main areas of focus, both related to the aftermath of the Iran war. First: Has there been a change in the deal environment? This includes both mergers and acquisitions and the initial public offering pipeline. Goldman CEO David Solomon said on an earnings call in January that the company’s investment banking backlog is at its highest level in four years. We hope that the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of war does not dampen the spirits of these animals. Analysts are expected to ask Mr. Solomon specifically about the level of activity in the “sponsor” community, a term used to describe private equity firms (and their deep-pocketed clients such as sovereign wealth funds) that often require investment banking services. The second area of focus is how trading desks have performed as war-induced volatility spread across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodity markets. Volatile markets pose risks to trading appetite, but traders look forward to it. Another topic that will emerge on Monday is the health of private credit markets. This year, concerns about the disruption of AI have led to increased criticism. Notably, Goldman’s flagship private credit fund did not have the same level of redemptions in the first quarter as some of its peers. Wall Street expects Goldman to report earnings of $16.49 per share on revenue of $16.97 billion, according to LSEG on Friday. Wells Fargo will report against a markedly different backdrop than last year’s earnings season. Back in January, the stock was in great shape following its fourth quarter results, trading near all-time highs. Not this time. Piper Sandler analysts said in a note to clients Thursday that Wells Fargo is the major bank investors are “most pessimistic about.” Among the concerns heard from investors is Wells Fargo’s “relatively large exposure” as a lender to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) such as mortgage companies, personal wealth managers and insurance companies. The collapse of a UK-based specialist lender last month added to these concerns. “We believe (Wells Fargo’s) clarification regarding potential loss exposures and a general reconsideration of the company’s NDFI exposures could also help the stock price,” UBS analysts wrote to clients on April 7. Another potential tailwind could be the discussion around Wells Fargo’s net interest income (NII), which captures the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid to depositors. In January, the bank announced impressive full-year NII guidance of $50 billion. But when HSBC upgraded Wells Fargo from hold to buy on April 1, analysts argued that the outlook could become conservative (perhaps to avoid having to lower its guide as it did last year). Any signs of NII rising throughout the year would therefore be welcomed positively. He also expects Wells Fargo’s fee-based businesses to continue to perform well, particularly in its nascent investment banking division. It will also be interesting to see what CEO Charlie Scharf has to say about efforts to grow organically now that the bank has been operating without a Fed-imposed asset cap for 10 months. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by LSEG expected Wells Fargo to report revenue of $21.77 billion and EPS of $1.58. Our goal in acquiring a stake in J&J last week was to leave Bristol-Myers Squibb behind and improve the quality of the drug company’s holdings. While Bristol-Myers’ stock has rebounded nicely in recent months, J&J has more upside potential thanks to a stronger portfolio (both drugs already on the market and treatments in trials) and a planned sale of its medical technology business. The main drugs to watch in the first quarter’s numbers are Darzalex, a multiple myeloma drug that will be the company’s biggest drug with sales of more than $14 billion in 2025, and Tremfya, an injectable therapy for inflammatory diseases such as plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease. Sales rose 40.5% to $5.16 billion last year, and Tremfya is helping J&J weather the loss of patent protection for its fellow immunology drug, Stelara. Tremfya belongs to a class of drugs called IL-23 inhibitors that have become popular as injectables. But what’s interesting about J&J’s story is that its oral IL-23 inhibitor was approved by the Food and Drug Administration last month to treat psoriasis. Management’s expectations for the pill, which is branded Icotyde, are expected to be a hot topic during the earnings call. The company’s medtech division will closely monitor the performance of the company’s cardiovascular portfolio (it has spent about $30 billion in recent years on the acquisitions of Shockwave and Abiomed to strengthen this business) and its ambitions in vision, particularly surgical procedures to treat cataracts and other vision corrections. According to LSEG on Friday, TheStreet expects J&J to post earnings of $2.66 a share on revenue of $23.63 billion. 3. Inflation data: Following Friday’s Consumer Inflation Report, this week sees the release of its cousin, the Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI, scheduled to be released Tuesday morning, is a measure of wholesale inflation that captures how much producers are being paid for products such as steel, hay and asphalt. Therefore, it is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation because if businesses pay more for inputs, those costs are likely to be passed on to consumers in the future. Investors don’t like it either if companies choose to take a margin hit instead. Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was not as bad as feared, but the impact of the Iran war was still evident in rising energy prices. This is evident in Tuesday’s PPI, which also includes diesel and gas fuels. Economists polled by FactSet forecast a 1.2% month-on-month increase and a 4.6% annualized increase. In February, they rose 0.7% and 3.4%, respectively. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in March, down from February’s 0.5% month-on-month rise. Number of existing home sales as of Monday, April 13th, 10:00 a.m. (ET), one week ahead. Before the bell: Goldman Sachs (GS), Fastenal (FAST). Producer Price Index as of 8:30 a.m. (ET), Tuesday, April 14th. Before the Bell: Wells Fargo (WFC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), CarMax (KMX) Wednesday, April 15 Export/Import Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET Before the bell: ASML (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), M&T Bank (MTB), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial (PNC) After the bell: JB Hunt (JBHT) Thursday, April 16, 8:30 a.m. ET Initial Unemployment Claims Philadelphia Fed Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: PepsiCo (PEP), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Prologis (PLD), Abbott (ABT), Travelers (TRV), BNY Mellon (BK), Citizen Financial (CFG), Infosys (INFY) After the Bell: Netflix (NFLX), Alcoa (AA) 17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 9:15 a.m. ET Before the bell: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Truist (TFC), Ericsson (ERIC), Ally Financial (ALLY), State Street (STT) (Jim Cramer Charitable Trusts are long JNJ, WFC, GS. 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