After US-Iran ceasefire, Gulf states scramble to intercept missiles

On Wednesday, a number of Middle Eastern countries reported incoming missiles and drones from Iran, and air defenses were activated across the Gulf within hours of a newly announced two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

The United States and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire just before US President Donald Trump’s deadline to launch a major attack if no deal is reached. A ceasefire would open a two-week period of negotiations between US and Iranian delegations, who are scheduled to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

President Trump said the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire was conditional on the “full, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials said in a statement Wednesday that “if attacks against Iran cease, our powerful military will cease defensive operations.”

Tehran added that safe passage through the strait would be possible through coordination with the armed forces and “due consideration of technical limitations.” The warning could give Iran leeway to define compliance on its own terms.

Despite the reprieve, missiles were still launched from Iran toward Israel and several Gulf states.

The Israeli military said early Wednesday that it had confirmed a ballistic missile attack from Iran and had issued an early warning for the central and northern parts of the country.

The United Arab Emirates said its air defense systems were intercepting missiles and drones and urged people to stay safe. “The sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE’s air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones,” the ministry said.

Saudi Arabia’s civil defense organization also issued an early warning of “potential danger” across the country, including Riyadh. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar also issued alerts or put themselves on defense as threats emerged across the region.

The continued attacks have raised questions about whether the ceasefire agreement can be maintained, especially if negotiations stall or break down during the two-week period.

Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the United States and Israel have launched more than 3,000 attacks against Iran, and Iran has retaliated with a total of 1,511 attacks against targets in Israel and neighboring Gulf states, according to crisis monitoring group ACLED.

Weapons stockpiles across the region are reportedly under strain, with some Gulf states using a significant portion of their stocks of interceptor missiles. By late March, the UAE and Kuwait had used up about 75% of their Patriot interceptor missile stocks, while Bahrain was estimated to have depleted as much as 87%, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security.

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghaddam, on Tuesday warned Gulf countries to “pay attention to the situation in their countries and their relations with Iran.” “Sooner or later, America will admit defeat and leave this region, and you will remain,” he warned.

Since the war began, Iran has stepped up attacks on several countries in the Middle East, using it as leverage against the Gulf states and the United States.

Gulf air defenses are largely effective against ballistic missiles, but have struggled to defeat Iranian drones. Iranian drones are cheap to manufacture and are typically launched in swarms, overwhelming interceptors.

Recent attacks have caused significant damage to the region’s energy infrastructure, with the latest attack eliminating 17% of production at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant, damage that will take years to recover.

UAE Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash reportedly said earlier this week that the war must end with a long-term solution for Gulf security, and warned against a ceasefire that fails to achieve that. “We don’t want hostility with Iran, but we have no confidence in this regime.”