Taipei —
As families cleaned ancestral graves and gathered around dinner tables over Taiwan’s Qingming holiday weekend, a familiar debate resurfaced. Should the island democracy rely more on the United States for security, or should it engage with China to ease tensions?
For some, the Iran war raises urgent questions about how much attention the United States can maintain if multiple crises occur simultaneously. Delays in weapons deliveries, depleted weapons stockpiles, and President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to allies and partners all reinforce these doubts.
The debate has intensified this week as Chung Liyun, a firebrand from Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang party, heads to China on a six-day trip that could include a landmark meeting with leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.
If Zheng meets with Xi, it will mean that Xi has invited her as the head of the Chinese Communist Party, but it will be the first official meeting between a sitting Kuomintang president and China’s top leader in a decade. It also comes ahead of a May summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, where Taiwan is expected to be high on the agenda.
Mr. Chen characterized his visit as a peace visit, declaring it a step toward easing tensions between Taipei and China, which has vowed to eventually rule Taiwan by force if necessary.
“War is not destined to happen across the Strait,” Chen said. “I hope this visit brings a calmer and warmer spring to cross-Channel relations.”
Her visit comes amid increasing pressure on Taiwan from both the United States and China. On the same day that Beijing publicly invited Chen, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators landed in Taipei and urged Taiwan’s lawmakers to echo the Trump administration’s message that peace comes through strength and pass President Lai Ching-de’s stalled $40 billion national defense plan.
“It is critical that all political parties in Taiwan work together to strengthen additional defense spending,” said Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
Sen. John Curtis said he needs to show his colleagues that Taiwan is carrying its weight.
Chung’s visit comes as the Iran war reframes discussions about Taiwan’s security.
William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that prolonged U.S. military operations in the Middle East “could reduce the pressure that China may face in the Indo-Pacific” as the U.S. government diverts attention, resources and ammunition to other conflicts.
As a result, Taiwan may be further exposed to sustained military and political pressure from the Chinese government.
Taiwan has already spent tens of billions of dollars on U.S. weapons systems, including fighter jets and missiles. Some of these systems were approved years ago but are not yet available. The backlog has become a go-to argument for opposition politicians who question why additional spending is being pushed forward before existing orders arrive.
The controversy has stalled Lai’s defense plans in the opposition-dominated parliament. The divisions within the National Party were also exposed. Some party officials support increasing defense spending to reassure Washington. Others have called for a smaller package with more transparency and oversight, and warned against moving Taiwan too closely to U.S. expectations without clearer guarantees.
“The juxtaposition of the U.S. senator’s upcoming visit to China clearly shows how the two major political parties are trying to sell their messages,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.
He said that for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), security comes from strengthening ties with the United States and investing in deterrence. The Kuomintang’s argument is that easing tensions with China will reduce the risk that deterrence will be tested.
Neither side is proposing a break with either faction. There is disagreement over which relationship should take priority.
The Chinese government’s approach goes beyond rhetoric.
Military planes and naval vessels operate near Taiwan almost daily as part of an ongoing effort to exert pressure and test a response. Taiwanese officials also said China is trying to shape public opinion on Taiwan by spreading disinformation and amplifying political divisions.
At the same time, the Chinese government refuses to engage with Taiwan’s ruling party, which won the presidential position in three consecutive elections.
That’s because the Democratic Progressive Party rejects China’s sovereignty claims over Taiwan and does not support the 1992 Consensus, a framework in which both Beijing and Taipei acknowledge the existence of “one China” but have different interpretations of what that is. As a result, direct communication at the highest levels was cut off.
The Kuomintang, which ruled all of China until it was defeated by communist forces and retreated to Taiwan in 1949, takes a different position. China has accepted the 1992 agreement as the basis for dialogue, which is why its leaders can still meet with Chinese officials.
For Beijing, this distinction allows it to maintain influence in Taiwanese politics while isolating the elected government.
That dynamic is not lost on voters. For many Taiwanese, especially young Taiwanese, Beijing’s promises have little credibility, especially after the crackdown in Hong Kong, which had been promised a high degree of autonomy from the mainland. In recent years, their identity as Taiwanese rather than Chinese has become stronger.
For many in Taiwan, it feels like the island is being pulled in the opposite direction.
Most Taiwanese take great pride in what their society has achieved in a relatively short period of time. The island held its first democratic elections in the early 1990s after decades of martial law under the Kuomintang government. Today, the company produces nearly all of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and plays a major role in the global technology supply chain and economy.
But that success comes with intense pressure. Taiwan lies along what military planners call the First Island Chain, a stretch of territory that runs from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, and is viewed by both China and the United States as a key line of control in the Western Pacific.
For China, placing Taiwan under its control would break through that barrier and expand its military reach. For the United States and its allies, protecting Taiwan from China is central to maintaining the current balance of power in the region.
Public opinion in Taiwan reflects the tension. Support for unification with China remains low. Many Taiwanese support maintaining the status quo and avoiding conflict.
Since taking over the KMT leadership last year, Cheng has sought to frame the party’s approach as pragmatic. Announcing the visit, she argued that Taiwan should not be pushed into conflict.
She also rejected the idea that Taiwan must choose between the United States and China.
“Little kids make choices,” she said recently. “Taiwan wants it all.”
This argument resonates with some voters wary of conflict but skeptical of Beijing. This allows the KMT to frame engagement as the only way to reduce risk, in contrast to the Democratic Progressive Party’s policy of strengthening military deterrence.
Ahead of her visit, the KMT doubled down on its message of talking about peace, posting photos on social media with slogans such as “Peace is Taiwan’s true love” and “Provocation will not bring peace,” harshly criticizing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
But it remains to be seen what Cheng will be able to accomplish on this trip.
Political scientist Nachman said the important thing to watch is how much autonomy she can maintain in a visit that is tightly controlled by the Chinese government.
Some voters in Taiwan are looking forward to Chung’s visit.
“I think the two governments share the responsibility of easing tensions,” said Peng, a Taipei resident in his late 50s. “After all, she is the chair of the National Party, so it makes sense that she would try to do the best she can.”
“I don’t have particularly high expectations,” said Chiang Kai-shek, a Taipei resident in his 30s. “Whether something actually comes out of it is a completely different story.”
Even if tensions appear to ease, she says, it’s likely to be temporary.
“At best, it will be a short-term softening,” she said. “The Chinese government’s basic thinking has not changed.”
