China’s box office is not the Hollywood kingmaker it once was. The reason is as follows

Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. It’s unclear whether it can be recovered.

The Chinese box office was once a coveted space for American films, and studios created films that appealed directly to audiences in this world. But in the post-pandemic movie world, Hollywood isn’t seeing the same strong ticket sales for blockbusters as it once did, at least in part because of its souring relationship with Chinese films.

The U.S.-China Film Agreement signed between the two governments in 2012 guaranteed that 34 American films would be released in China each year. The agreement ended in 2017 and was not renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China expanded domestic film production and began imposing blackout dates to encourage viewing of homegrown titles.

Coupled with the China Film Administration’s strict censorship policies and recent U.S.-China political tensions, Hollywood films are facing several hurdles just to be distributed in the country post-COVID-19.

“I don’t think it’s accurate to be kind of euphoric about the world’s biggest market and to think of China as a place that will always create a bigger market for the United States (intellectual property),” said Ain Caucus, a University of Virginia professor and author of “Hollywood Made in China.”

“The market is constrained in several respects, first of all in relation to content control, not only in terms of content control in terms of censorship, but also in terms of control of distribution channels by the party,” Kokas said.

He said the film office “turns distribution levers on and off based on market needs.” If Chinese local films do well, China will restrict distribution access for foreign films. If there is a gap in the release of a film or if ticket sales are poor after release, the market will open up.

In 2019, nine US titles each grossed over $100 million at the Chinese box office. disney Marvel Studios’ Avengers: Endgame has grossed more than $600 million in the region, according to ComScore data.

But over the past five years combined, only 10 American films have grossed more than $100 million in China, and only two have made more than $200 million.

An outlier is Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which achieved a record domestic box office revenue of $650 million after its release in 2025.

Box office analysts told CNBC that the feat was likely an anomaly and that studios and Wall Street shouldn’t expect a sudden resurgence in ticket sales for U.S. fare in the region, even as major franchise series launch ahead of the crucial summer movie season.

Despite the huge potential audience, what’s successful in the U.S. doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be successful in China.

“There’s not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between IPs that are popular in the U.S. and IPs that are popular in China,” Kokas said.

In some cases, it’s due to a lack of nostalgia among Chinese viewers. Caucus pointed out that Star Wars was introduced to the region as a sequel trilogy in 2015, but it failed because the original trilogy and previous films in the pre-trilogy were not released in China.

Distribution experts told CNBC that Chinese cinemas and audiences tend to be attracted to films that are visually spectacular and apolitical.

Movies that have performed well in the region since the pandemic include films from the Fast & Furious series, Jurassic World series, Godzilla series and King Kong series.

Despite the recent slump in ticket sales for Chinese releases, studios aren’t shy about releasing titles in the region. One distribution expert told CNBC that China remains a huge theatrical opportunity for American films.

“China remains a key element in the international strategy of U.S.-based film companies, as there is undeniable demand for Hollywood blockbusters in the region and the potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars in China,” said Paul Dergarabedian, Head of Marketplace Trends at ComScore.

Universal’s “Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the next entry in the U.S. and is scheduled to be released in theaters this weekend.

The first film in the series, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, grossed more than $1.3 billion worldwide in 2023, but only $25 million of that came from China.

A distribution expert told CNBC that console games like Nintendo’s Super Mario series aren’t as popular in the region, meaning the nostalgia that drove domestic ticket sales of $575 million wasn’t a big factor in China.

Meanwhile, in Japan, where Super Mario is a cultural icon, the film grossed $102 million.

Still, the Chinese market could help boost the film’s overall box office receipts, potentially cementing it as a blockbuster hit. As such, studios remain open to releasing titles theatrically in the region.

Universal’s “Michael” is also on the docket for distribution in China this year. Warner Brothers” “Mortal Kombat II” and Disney’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”

Due to China’s strict censorship policies, films must be completed and screened by the Film Bureau before they can be considered for distribution. Therefore, Hollywood’s position in China is not as solidified as that of domestic cinema.

But box office analysts are predicting titles like Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” and Warner Bros. “Dune: Part 3” and Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” are also scheduled to be released in Chinese theaters this year.