doha, qatar
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With his latest ultimatum on Iran on the horizon, US President Donald Trump has pushed the restive Persian Gulf region to the brink of further uncertainty and danger.
The Iran war is already in its fourth week, leaving thousands of people dead and injured, global energy prices soaring and vast swaths of the troubled Middle East experiencing horrific violence.
But President Trump’s characteristically blunt ultimatum to “attack and destroy” Iranian power plants, announced over the weekend on his platform Truth Social, could open a Pandora’s box of negative consequences for the region unless the Islamic Republic loosens its tight grip on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely sealed since the US and Israeli offensive against Iran began last month.
A defiant Iran has refused to meet President Trump’s dramatic 48-hour deadline, which expires Monday night, and has vowed swift retaliation if U.S. threats are carried out, including further restrictions on strategic energy corridors and chokepoints through which an estimated 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically flows.
“The Strait of Hormuz has been completely closed and will remain closed until the damaged power plant is rebuilt,” Iran’s military command said in a statement on Sunday, effectively threatening to block even the giant oil and gas tankers currently allowed to pass through Hormuz.
Iran is also threatening further military escalation.
“Power plants in regional countries that host U.S. military bases are considered legitimate targets,” the military statement continued.
Critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be “irreversibly destroyed,” Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reiterated in comments posted on X.
He reiterated that regional infrastructure would also be a “legitimate target” if Iranian facilities were attacked.
This is a worrying message from Iran that is being heard loud and clear in increasingly anxious oil and gas-producing Arab Gulf states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. All of these countries host US military facilities and are on the brink of economic survival.
Iran’s drone and missile attacks have already disrupted the Gulf’s energy production and export systems, and oil and gas revenues, typically measured in billions of dollars a day, have plummeted, if not zero, since the Iran war began.
The recent attack on Qatar’s vast Ras Laffan natural gas processing facility, struck by two Iranian missiles in retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field last week, shocked global energy markets and sent already sky-high global prices soaring.
There are real concerns that if the United States follows through on President Trump’s power plant threat, Iran, even with its dwindling arsenal of missiles and drones, could repeat or even amplify that kind of damage and disruption.
The US president himself has previously warned that destroying Iran’s key infrastructure would severely undermine the country’s ability to quickly rebuild after the war. An escalation of the Iran war could lead to increased casualties in the region, higher global prices for food and fuel, and could hit the world’s most vulnerable people hardest.
It’s not just the uncertainty surrounding energy markets that makes this unpredictable new chapter in the escalating conflict so painful here in the Gulf.
Gorgeous Gulf cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, which have spent decades building reputations as safe financial centers, global travel hubs and tourist destinations, are evacuating residents and tourists in droves, fleeing drones and missiles to safer areas.
This population exodus, with its huge economic costs, may yet prove to be temporary. The nightmare scenario has not yet fully materialized.
But more fallout could soon be unleashed, like the evil that escaped Pandora’s box, as the region teeters on the brink of another dangerous escalation.
