Khamenei’s killing by the United States and Israel created a power vacuum at the heart of the Iranian regime and triggered a complex process to find a successor.
The Islamic Republic has only had one leadership change since it came to power nearly half a century ago. Khamenei, who succeeded Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, was killed without an officially declared successor.
A three-person council was formed on Sunday to maintain power until Khamenei’s successor is chosen. However, the US and Israeli attacks continue, and there is no telling how long it will take.
Here’s what you need to know:
Under Iran’s constitution, a three-member Guidance Council holds power until a new supreme leader is appointed. They include moderate President Massoud Pezeshkian, hardline Attorney General Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and senior cleric Alireza Alafi.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the powerful speaker of Iran’s parliament, said the regime was “prepared for such a moment” and “has been planning for all scenarios.”
“The establishment of a leadership council will create unimaginable strength and cohesion,” he said.
However, although the government may not have planned for it, it ended up losing several top officials at once. Israel claimed Saturday’s airstrike killed the “vast majority” of Iranian military leaders, including military chief of staff Abdulrahim Mousavi. Major General Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. and Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Iranian National Defense Council.
When Khomeini died in 1989, following the Iran-Iraq war that lasted most of the decade, it took less than a day for him to be named his successor. In other words, there was no need to establish a transition council. As the US and Israel continue to attack, it will take more time to name Khamenei’s successor.
Until then, the ad hoc council must decide whether to continue delegating defense decision-making to Iranian national security chief Ali Larijani and Ghalibaf. Both men, along with former Navy rear admiral Shamkhani, who was killed in Saturday’s attack, were tasked with leading Iran’s defense during June’s 12-day war with Israel.
Analysis: The significance of Iran’s supreme leader being killed in an airstrike
A group of 88 senior clerics known as the Council of Experts will choose Khamenei’s successor.
The members of the Council of Experts, elected by the Iranian people every eight years, are scrutinized by the Guardian Council, an independent body of 12 jurists that oversees the activities of Iran’s parliament.
In peacetime, the Guardian Council determines whether laws passed by parliament comply with Sharia law and often requests amendments. It also approves candidates for Congress, the President, and the Council of Experts.
Known for disqualifying presidential candidates. For example, ahead of the 2021 elections, the Guardian Council banned more than 600 people from applying, including all women and senior officials such as national security chief Larijani.
Sanam Baqir, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at think tank Chatham House, said the expert meeting may not be convened until the United States and Israel reduce their activities. “They cannot risk any more deaths or damage to facilities,” she told CNN.
Khamenei’s second son Mojtaba is a key figure with strong ties to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij volunteer militia. However, given that the regime replaced the Iranian monarchy, the Shiite cleric may want to avoid father-to-son succession.
Shiite cleric Alireza Alafi, who was named to the transition council on Sunday, has been appointed to several senior positions by Khamenei and is considered a likely candidate. He is vice-chair of the Council of Experts and a member of the Guardian Council, which means his name can be scrutinized. He is also the head of Iran’s seminary system.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, also a representative of the most conservative clergy and member of the Council of Experts, is another candidate. The same goes for Hassan Khomeini, Khomeini’s grandson, who is known for being less hard-line than his colleagues.
However, something surprising can happen. The administration may choose someone younger and less well-known, or perhaps choose a leadership council rather than a single person.
Chatham House’s Baqir said Khamenei’s death would not end tensions between hardliners and reformists.
“Moments of succession tend to strengthen conservative and security-led parties, at least initially,” she says. “Domestic debates about the direction of the country are likely to be taking place quietly within narrow elite circles rather than in public. If reform politicians have ambitions, now is the time.”
US President Donald Trump has called on Iranians to overthrow their government. “When we’re done, take over your government. It’ll be yours. This will probably be your only chance for generations,” Trump said in a Truth Social video. He also called on the Revolutionary Guards to lay down their arms or “face certain death.”
So far, despite some celebrations, there are few signs that Iranians will take to the streets to topple the regime’s remaining forces. There are also no signs of defection by elites within the security apparatus. President Trump told CBS News on Saturday that there are “some good candidates” to take power, but he did not name names.
Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Iran’s deposed king, has been floated as a possible candidate to become the country’s next leader. Pahlavi was just 16 when his father was overthrown in the 1979 Iranian revolution and has lived in the United States ever since. Some commentators have suggested that he will have Israeli support.
But one problem is that there is no alternative force waiting to take power in Iran, said David Petraeus, a retired U.S. Army general and former CIA director.
“The challenge here is that there is no figure like Ahmed al-Shara in Syria with the military power that could overthrow the brutal Bashar al-Assad’s hollow regime forces in Syria in 2024,” Petraeus told CNN.
Robin Wright, a New Yorker contributor who interviewed Khamenei, made a similar point, telling CNN: “Iran has a lot of young Nelson Mandelas, but it doesn’t have an African National Congress like South Africa, which took years to develop the infrastructure and define what an alternative to apartheid would look like and who its leaders would be. … Iran doesn’t have anything like that.”
With much of Iran’s leadership beheaded, the Revolutionary Guards, which have increasingly supported the regime for decades, are likely to exercise power behind the scenes. Responsible solely to the supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guards are increasingly tasked not only with fighting foreign enemies but also maintaining order at home.
The authority of the Revolutionary Guards goes beyond military power. Many of Iran’s economic elites, who benefited from access to the regime’s power centers during the sanctions era, hold influential positions in the Revolutionary Guards. This could have a major impact on the appointment of a new supreme leader.
As its name suggests, the Revolutionary Guards exist to “defend” the Islamic revolution and the regime it spawned. After 1979, the various militias that overthrew the shah quickly joined together to form the Revolutionary Guards. It resisted early attempts to integrate into the regular army and consolidated its power during deployment to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
It currently has an army of 150,000 to 190,000 people. Iran has an army, navy, air force, and intelligence services, which are also integrated into Iran’s overall civilian economy.
Although many of its senior leaders are believed to have been killed in this weekend’s strikes, the Revolutionary Guards still oversee the Basij, operating visibly on the streets and like a police force in the country.
The Basij, which means “mobilization” in Persian, is a volunteer organization with members from across the country, often from poorer, more conservative backgrounds. It is tasked with supporting the domestic government and enforcing Islamic morality on the people.
Facing its biggest crisis, the Iranian regime is “moving quickly behind the scenes to prevent fragmentation and demonstrate continuity,” Chatham House’s Vakil said. It remains to be seen whether these efforts will be successful.
