Another territorial dispute is rocking the troubled relationship between the United States and Canada, but it’s not the result of President Donald Trump’s threat to make their northern neighbor the country’s 51st state.
Canadian leader Mark Carney this week once again urged President Trump to “respect Canada’s sovereignty” after the Financial Times reported that State Department officials have met three times since April last year with leaders of groups calling for Alberta to secede from Canada.
The group, called the Alberta Prosperity Project, is pushing for an Alberta independence referendum and plans to ask U.S. Treasury officials for a $500 billion line of credit to “support the transition to a free and independent Alberta,” according to an X post by one of its leaders.
A White House official told CNN, “Administration officials have been meeting with a number of civil society groups, but there has been no communication of support or commitment,” downplaying U.S. involvement.
But the report has sparked fresh anger in Canada, which is trying to present a united front against the Trump administration’s tariffs and threats to its territory. Leaders in neighboring British Columbia likened the activities by the Alberta group to “mutiny.”
Here’s what we know about Alberta’s independence movement and the province’s potential separation from the rest of Canada.
Alberta is an oil-rich province in western Canada, approximately the same size as Texas.
Home to about 5 million people, the state is home to the Rocky Mountains and tourist destinations like Banff and Lake Louise.
The state has a distinct political and cultural identity, driven by a strong energy and agricultural sector, a commitment to economic individualism, and low taxes. Alberta, also known as the “Energy Province,” is home to oil sands that account for approximately 84% of Canada’s total crude oil production.
Politically, it is considered Canada’s bastion of conservatism, although its urban centers, Calgary and Edmonton, are more progressive.
Alberta Premier Daniel Smith is friendly with Trump and other Republicans, and visited the president’s private club, Mar-a-Lago, last January. It came even as fellow Americans in other states have banded together against President Trump and his threat to annex Canada and weaken the economy.
Segregationist Albertans have long felt their interests are not adequately represented in Ottawa.
They argue the federal government’s efforts to stop climate change are hurting Alberta’s oil industry. You’re paying more than you get back in federal taxes. And that their conservative values are being drowned out by the more liberal and populous eastern states.
“Western alienation has existed since Confederation and certainly since Alberta became a province in 1905,” said Michael Solberg, a partner at strategic advisory firm New West Public Affairs and a former political staffer in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government.
“But at times when Albertans feel that Ottawa is making decisions that directly harm their way of life, that rate tends to rise.”
Federally mandated COVID-19 lockdowns and more than a decade of Liberal leadership in Ottawa have facilitated just that, and temperatures are only rising as the rest of Canada unites in patriotism against Trump.
Shortly after Carney’s Liberal Party won the 2025 federal election in April on a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Alberta’s parliament passed legislation to make it easier to hold an independence referendum.
But the separatist movement lacks a leader or a structured movement and is “driven by a small number of outspoken activists and is growing primarily online,” Solberg said. No secessionist parties currently hold seats in the Alberta Legislature.
The return of pro-oil conservative Trump to the White House has galvanized the withdrawal movement, and some have reframed their ultimate goals.
At a rally for Alberta independence last summer, which included CNN, supporters wore MAGA-style “Make Alberta Great Again” hats and praised Trump as “North America’s best asset” and a potential ally of secessionists.
Most of the participants at the rally wanted Alberta to become a fully independent country, but some expressed support for the alternative possibility of Alberta becoming the 51st state in the United States.
In February, billboards appeared along the highway between Calgary and Edmonton, urging onlookers to tell Premier Smith that Alberta should “join America!” A photo of her shaking hands with President Trump was superimposed. It was funded by an organization with the tagline “Canadians for the 51st Province.”
President Trump’s top officials also expressed support for Albertans seeking independence.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with the right-wing TV station Real America’s Voice last week that Alberta is a “natural partner for the United States.”
“Albertans have great resources. Albertans are a very independent people,” he said, adding he had heard there could be a referendum soon.
“People want sovereignty. They want what the United States has got,” he said.
Bessent argued that Canada would not allow Alberta to build an oil pipeline to the Pacific Ocean, saying, “I think we should allow Alberta to build an oil pipeline to the United States.”
Solberg said it is “very likely” that Alberta will hold a referendum on independence. Only two such referendums have ever been held in a Canadian province, both in the French-speaking province of Quebec. Most recently, in 1995, voters there voted to remain by a narrow margin.
“All signs point to a referendum this fall on whether Alberta should remain in the federation,” Solberg said. “The stakes are high and it’s starting to feel real.”
Another secessionist group called Stay Free Alberta has been collecting signatures on a petition asking the provincial government to hold a referendum, and some rallies have drawn large crowds. The group needs to collect 177,732 signatures from voters by May.
But polls show support for Alberta independence remains relatively low. In a January poll by Pollara Strategic Insights, only 19 per cent of Albertans said they supported secession.
But Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said a significant proportion of those supporting the referendum could be “symbolic secessionists.”
“Some people who were lining up to sign the petition to force a secession referendum said they simply wanted to send a message to Ottawa so that Alberta could take a stronger position in negotiations.”
Another referendum petition led by anti-Leave voters has already been approved, with more than 400,000 signatures.
Some of the idea’s loudest critics come from Indigenous communities whose agreements with the Canadian state are older than Alberta’s. Under pressure from that community, the government added a clause to the referendum bill guaranteeing treaty rights whatever the outcome.
Mr Smith, the state’s leader, said he did not support secession, but refused to condemn the lobbying for secession, saying their grievances were “legitimate”.
Even if the referendum passes, Solberg said the process of leaving would be “very complex and unstable.”
Solberg said there was no roadmap for what withdrawal would entail, especially questions about whether the end goal was independence or membership in the United States.
“These are open questions, at least not yet with any major answers, and the legal and economic risks remain enormous.”
