If the outrages and belligerence were eliminated, Europe would be left with wars today, not wars that probably won’t happen tomorrow.
US President Donald Trump’s insistence that he will not occupy Greenland by force and his sudden announcement of a framework agreement should allay fears that a full-scale US invasion and occupation is imminent. But the damage done by this episode of Europe-bashing and blatant colonial greed is real and lasting.
At Davos, there were hopes that Trump would work with key European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on an $800 billion peacetime “prosperity” deal for Ukraine and stronger U.S. security guarantees for Kiev. It wasn’t. In a rambling speech that lasted more than an hour, Trump noted that Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron were both in the audience, even though they had left the venue believing there was actually little progress toward peace.
Do you care more that Trump thought he was sitting in front of you when he mocked Mr. Macron’s accent and glasses, or do you care more that the man who used to call Mr. Macron “Dear Donald” was back in Paris after a week of vitriol?
Did Trump’s staff not tell him that Macron and Zelensky were absent from the speech, or did Trump forget?
These are some of the small questions that will plague Davos over the next few hours.
Zelenskiy will have to rush from Kiev to attend Thursday’s talks. It’s a long train journey followed by a short flight from southern Poland, but it’s not a quick trip for a wartime leader with an energy crisis and a target on his mind.
Even more worrying is what will happen once President Zelenskiy arrives. The hostile and unpredictable US president seems to find himself loath to blithely eviscerate his country’s longtime allies, mock its leaders, and buy windmills. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a deal on Ukraine, even though there is little public evidence to support that claim, and Zelenskiy has said the same. Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy for war, is scheduled to meet with Putin again on Thursday, likely after the Trump-Zelensky meeting in Davos. Last week’s unrest has significantly reduced the already slim chances of a genuine peace deal.
In recent months, President Zelenskiy has acknowledged the need to preserve the peace process and move forward with the current set of draft documents, with Ukraine demonstrating to Witkov that it is flexible, willing and keen to seek results. The latest version of the agreement, drawn up in late December, leaves several key issues unresolved and suggests that peace would leave the front lines as they are and that any (relatively small) land concessions or exchanges would be subject to a referendum in Ukraine. Parts of Donbas under Ukrainian control could become a “special economic zone.” Aside from these territorial disputes, President Zelenskiy said the plan to split the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant between the United States, Russia and Ukraine remains a major obstacle.
Any progress at Davos would come against the backdrop of Trump’s week-long violation of European sovereignty and the transatlantic alliance, an issue that suddenly appeared to be resolved late Wednesday. In the noisy New York business world, just having a lawyer on your side can ask for a lot in the hopes of getting a little bit more. In geopolitics, you can’t do that, especially when your grandeur is backed by the most powerful military in history. Does President Trump not expect to be taken seriously? Is he angry when he isn’t? Or does he vacillate between both positions from time to time?
But disruption can go both ways. The deal President Trump is seeking in Ukraine requires Kiev to trust that its concessions will not be exposed in the coming months. Similarly, Europe needs to feel that its reliance on the United States as an intermediary and security guarantor works to its advantage. Their options without the United States are bleak and difficult. However, Ukraine survived last year’s disaster and the front line did not collapse. Many European leaders did not meet with President Trump at Davos. President Trump has succeeded in proving that European tolerance is not limitless. Similarly, President Trump’s term is not unlimited, and the midterm elections could dampen the wave of unbridled omnipotence in the White House.
President Trump’s America needs allies. Currently, China is threatening much of the Western Hemisphere with military action, while simultaneously criticizing and mocking Europe for its weakness. The Russian government has so far rejected offers for a peace deal over Ukraine. China and India have maintained a certain distance. “Make America Great Again” is not the same as “Make America Great (but) Alone.”
There remains a possibility of progress toward a Ukraine deal at Davos. If, as many expected, Putin deems the proposals before him to fall short of his maximalist demands, he could easily expose the Kremlin’s intransigence. But the alliance over Ukraine has endured perhaps its most dangerous week since the invasion, having just witnessed the world’s most powerful man plotting to take over Greenland for minimal economic and strategic gain and seemingly lost for seven days.
At the very least, Putin will take note of Trump’s moral incoherence, policy incoherence, and willingness to bash allies. To be sure, President Trump could be similarly hasty in his approach to Moscow. But the Kremlin probably sees an opportunity, not a threat, in this post-presidential dust cloud.
