Home prices are expected to rise by about 2.2% nationwide in 2026, but prices could rise even faster in some large U.S. cities (mainly in the Midwest and Northeast).
That’s according to a recent forecast from Realtor.com, which predicts the housing market will become “more balanced” as increased inventory slows overall price growth. Even so, moderation is not expected to be felt equally.
“The Midwest and Northeast continue to see strong demand despite the broader economic slowdown, primarily due to persistent inventory shortages,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, told CNBC Make It.
While many markets in the South and West have seen flat or negative price growth as new construction increases supply, cities in the Midwest and Northeast have added fewer homes in recent years, which has kept prices rising.
Here are the 11 largest U.S. cities expected to see the most home price increases in 2026.
1. Toledo, Ohio
Expected price increase in 2026: 13.1% Median home price: $199,900
2. Syracuse, New York
Expected price increase in 2026: 12.4% Median home price: $298,950
3. Scranton – Wilkes-Barre – Hazleton, Pennsylvania
Expected price increase in 2026: 10.9% Median home price: $260,000
4. Rochester, New York
Expected price increase in 2026: 10.3% Median home price: $256,900
5. Hartford, CT – West Hartford – East Hartford
Expected price increase in 2026: 9.5% Median home price: $429,000
6. Baltimore – Columbia – Towson, Maryland
Expected price increase in 2026: 8.3% Median home price: $375,000
7. New Haven – Milford, CT
Expected price increase in 2026: 7.7% Median home price: $439,000
8. Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Expected price increase in 2026: 7.7% Median home price: $342,899
9. Albany – Schenectady – Troy, NY
Expected price increase in 2026: 7.5% Median home price: $419,900
10. Columbia, South Carolina
Expected price increase in 2026: 7.2% Median home price: $303,300
11. Milwaukee – Waukesha – West Allis, Wisconsin
Expected price increase in 2026: 7% Median home price: $379,000
Realtor.com’s metropolitan-level forecasts are based on proprietary property data, as well as local inventory levels, new construction activity, employment and income trends, and mortgage rate expectations.
These forecasts suggest that in markets where little housing is being added, especially small cities in the Midwest and Northeast, even modest demand will be enough to keep prices rising. In contrast, in markets with intense construction, home prices in some regions are expected to fall by up to 10% in 2026.
In the metropolitan areas with the highest expected returns, “new housing development is very limited and supply is tight,” Jones said. At the same time, home prices in most of these cities are “well below the national average,” she says.
Overall, as of late 2025, only three of the 11 cities on the list have a median listing price above the U.S. median of about $415,000.
Toledo particularly stands out for its relatively affordable prices. The median home price in the city is about $199,900, well below Ohio’s statewide median of about $275,000, according to real estate agent data.
Another factor is proximity to large urban centers.
“Demand continues to be strong in the Northeast as buyers seek more affordable and commuting alternatives to large, high-cost subways like New York and Boston,” Jones said. “With new construction slowing in many of these older markets in the Northeast, supply constraints remain acute, amplifying the impact on prices of even modest demand growth.”
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