The holiday season is over and we are once again busy looking forward to the first trading week of 2026. With the start of the fourth quarter earnings season still a few weeks away, many companies are entering a corporate blackout period. We focus on macroeconomic updates and geopolitical headlines, including developments in Venezuela, where the United States launched a surprise attack last weekend that removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The attack on oil-rich Venezuela was unexpected, but oil analysts told CNBC that energy markets had already priced in the risk that a conflict with the country would disrupt oil exports. President Donald Trump said Saturday that the United States intends to “govern” Venezuela until “a safe, appropriate and sensible transition of power can occur.” We’ll know more about how investors are digesting this news when futures open Sunday night. 1. How’s the labor market doing? The most important economic update of the week will be the release of the December nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. This will be the first real test for the market in 2026 and will help further shape investors’ thinking about when the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve will occur. According to the CEM FedWatch tool, there is a 50/50 chance of a rate cut at the end of the March Fed meeting. As of Friday, economists polled by FactSet expected 65,000 new jobs to be created in December, the unemployment rate to 4.5%, down a notch from 4.6% in November, and hourly wages to rise 3.6% for the year. Investors can first look for clues on the jobs report by checking Wednesday’s ADP release, but it’s not a perfect indicator. Also on Wednesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will indicate the tightness of the labor market, which could affect wage inflation expectations and thus price inflation. A tight job market means employers must offer higher salary packages to attract talent. In contrast, a loose labor market means that employers have less competition for talent and therefore do not need to increase financial incentives. 2. Is manufacturing growing or contracting? The ISM Manufacturing report, released on Monday, will show whether the sector grew or contracted last month. Economists are predicting another month of recession, with the reading at 48.7, below 50, according to FactSet. However, the pace will be slightly slower than in November. The delayed October factory orders report is noteworthy because it tells us what was going on in the first month of the first quarter, when companies haven’t yet reported, but it should be taken with a grain of salt given how backward-looking the current situation is. 3. Is the long-awaited housing recovery on the horizon? The December ISM Services report was released on Wednesday, and economists polled by FactSet expect it to slow slightly from November but still expand. A measurement of 50 is the threshold between shrinking and expanding. The estimate as of Friday was 52, down slightly from the 52.6 level in November. Finally, October housing starts will be announced on Friday. While lower interest rates are essential to the housing recovery, the long-term solution to the affordability crisis facing first-time home buyers is increased supply. Monday, January 5th 10am ET: December ISM Manufacturing Tuesday, January 6th After the Bell: AAR Crop (AIR) Wednesday, January 7th Before the Bell: Albertsons (ACI), UniFirst (UNF), MSC Industrial (MSM) After the Bell: Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies (JEF) 8:30 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey 10 a.m. ET: December ISM Services 10 a.m. ET: JOLT Thursday, January 8 Before the bell: TD SYNNEX (SNX), Acuity Brands (AYI), Commercial Metals (CMC), RPM International (RPM) After the bell: Tilray (TLRY), WD-40 (WDFC) 8:30 a.m. ET: First Unemployment Claims Friday January 9th 8:30 a.m. ET 10:00 a.m. ET: November Existing Home Sales (See here for a complete list of Jim Cramer Charitable Trust stocks.) As a subscriber to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club, you’ll receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he will issue a trade alert and then wait 72 hours before executing the trade. The above investment club information is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duties or obligations exist or arise from your receipt of information provided in connection with the Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
