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Home » Analysis: Thailand-Cambodia conflict pits well-equipped military and U.S. allies against weaker adversary with strong ties to China
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Analysis: Thailand-Cambodia conflict pits well-equipped military and U.S. allies against weaker adversary with strong ties to China

adminBy adminDecember 9, 2025No Comments6 Mins Read
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CNN
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The renewed fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border has put a spotlight on the two armies, which have vast differences in capabilities and strength and a history of armed conflict along the 500-mile (800-kilometer) border.

Bangkok and Phnom Penh have been at loggerheads over disputed territory since France, their colonial power, drew the border more than 100 years ago. The conflict pits Thailand, a longtime U.S. ally, against Cambodia’s relatively young military, which has close ties to China.

Let’s take a look at the history and capabilities of both.

The numbers favor Thailand

Thailand’s military strength is inferior to that of neighboring Cambodia in terms of both personnel and weapons.

Thailand has a total of 361,000 active duty personnel across all military branches, three times as many as Cambodia. And those forces have at their disposal weapons that Cambodia’s military could only dream of.

“Thailand has a large and well-funded military, with one of the best-equipped and trained air forces in Southeast Asia,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its “Military Balance 2025” report on the world’s militaries.

Meanwhile, in the Lowy Institute’s 2024 ranking of the military strength of 27 regional countries, Thailand ranks 14th and Cambodia ranks 23rd.

U.S. Air Force personnel walk in front of an airplane on display during the 88th Royal Air Force Memorial Air Show in Bangkok, Thailand, March 7, 2025.

Such a disparity is perhaps to be expected, given that Thailand has four times the population and more than ten times the GDP of Cambodia. Unlike Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, it escaped the ravages of war that engulfed the region in the late 20th century and the European colonialism that preceded it.

Overall, factors such as military strength, economic strength, diplomatic strength, and cultural strength are weighted in the Lowy Asian Power Index, and Thailand is ranked 10th and is considered a middle power, just behind Indonesia but ahead of countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam.

Lowy ranks Cambodia as a small Asian country, along with countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Laos.

Thailand has strong ties with the US and a global outlook

The Thai military has long played a major role in the kingdom’s politics. The country has long been ruled by a conservative force consisting of the military, the monarchy and an influential elite.

The military portrays itself as the ultimate defender of the monarchy, with generals seizing power in 20 coups since 1932 and often overthrowing democratic governments, according to the CIA World Factbook.

According to the US State Department, Thailand is a treaty ally of the US, a status that dates back to the signing of the Treaty for the Collective Defense of Southeast Asia, also known as the Manila Agreement, in 1954.

During the Vietnam War, Thailand stationed U.S. Air Force assets at several air bases, including B-52 bombers, and tens of thousands of Thai soldiers fought against the communist north on the side of South Vietnam with U.S. support.

The U.S. B-52 bomber operated from air bases in Thailand during the Vietnam War.

The strong ties between Washington and Bangkok continue to this day. Thailand is classified by the US as a major non-NATO ally, giving it special benefits and access to decades of US support for weapons programs.

Thailand and the US Indo-Pacific Command jointly host the annual Cobra Gold military exercise. The exercise began in 1982 as a joint exercise with the United States and has since added dozens of participants. According to the US military, this is the longest running international military exercise in the world.

In addition to Cobra Gold, the Thai and U.S. militaries have conducted more than 60 joint exercises, and more than 900 U.S. military aircraft and 40 naval ships visit Thailand each year, according to the U.S. State Department.

Despite this history with Washington, the Thai military has recently sought to maintain a more neutral approach to military policy and has strengthened ties with China over the past decade.

According to the “Military Balance” report, since it does not want to depend on any one country as a weapons supplier, it has also developed a strong domestic arms industry with assistance from countries such as Israel, Italy, Russia, South Korea, and Sweden.

According to IISS, the Cambodian military is younger than Thailand’s, having been established in 1993 after the communist government army merged with two non-communist resistance forces.

“Cambodia’s most important international defense relationships are with China and Vietnam. Despite traditionally relying on Russia for defense equipment, China is emerging as a major supplier,” IISS said.

The Chinese government has even developed a naval base in Cambodia. International analysts say the Ream naval base in the Gulf of Thailand could host a Chinese aircraft carrier.

Cambodia and China completed the seventh edition of the annual Golden Dragon joint military exercise in May. The exercise was billed as the largest in history and featured live-fire training scenarios.

Chinese military personnel participating in the Golden Dragon joint military exercise with Cambodia held in Svay Chok, Kampong Chhnang Province, Cambodia, on May 30, 2024.

The relationship is expected to “reach a new level and achieve new developments,” according to a February report posted on the People’s Liberation Army’s English website.

Asked about a possible rift in relations at a press conference in February, Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesperson Senior Colonel Wu Chen said: “China and Cambodia… are ironclad friends who always support each other. The two militaries enjoy unbreakable relations and rock-solid brotherhood.”

Cambodian military needs support.

“Cambodia currently lacks the capacity to design and manufacture modern equipment for its military,” the IISS report said.

Phnom Penh may be able to receive future supplies of U.S. military supplies after the Trump administration lifted the arms embargo on Phnom Penh in November. The move came after a trade deal between the US and Cambodia.

The Thai Air Force, strengthened by years of US support, is well-equipped with at least 11 state-of-the-art Swedish Gripen fighters and dozens of older American-made F-16 and F-5 fighters, according to the IISS. Cambodia does not have a combat-capable air force.

Thailand has dozens of tanks on the ground, including 60 modern Chinese-made VT-4 tanks and 100 older American tanks. According to Military Balance, Cambodia has about 200 old Chinese and Soviet tanks.

A Thai amphibious assault vehicle is seen during an assault exercise as part of the Cobra Gold 2025 joint military exercise at the military base in Sattahip, Chonburi Province, Thailand, on March 3, 2025.

The Thai military boasts over 600 artillery pieces, including at least 56 powerful 155mm weapons and over 550 105mm towed guns. According to IISS statistics, Cambodia has only a dozen 155mm guns and about 400 smaller towed guns.

In the skies, the military has U.S.-made Cobra attack helicopters and 18 U.S. Black Hawk transport planes. Cambodia has only a few dozen outdated Soviet-made and Chinese-made transport helicopters.

Karl Schuster, a Hawaii-based military analyst and former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Information Center, said that while Thailand has a numerical and qualitative military advantage, Cambodia has at least one advantage: physical land along the disputed border.

“The terrain is favorable for accessing the disputed areas from Cambodian territory,” Schuster told CNN.

He also said Thailand is expected to rely on long-range weapons, as the Cambodian military is said to be planting landmines and booby traps in conflict areas.

“The Thai Air Force is good, and so are the Thai Air Force’s special forces,” Schuster said. “The Thais would prefer to emphasize air power and long-range firepower in a conflict.”

This story has been updated with new information



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