The US Capitol building after the Senate advances a bill to end the government shutdown in Washington, DC, US on November 10, 2025.
Evelyn HochsteinReuter
The release of economic data, which was delayed during the government shutdown, will likely take some time to resume once Congress reconvenes.
It could resume as early as this weekend if a final vote is taken and President Donald Trump signs the emergency spending bill.
But from there, various agencies, primarily the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce, will need to get back on their feet when it comes to collecting and publishing data. That means they will likely need to catch up on key reports such as nonfarm payrolls, consumer price index, retail sales, spending and revenue, and a variety of other indicators.
“The federal government shutdown delayed the release of nearly all federal economic data for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Penn and Lonnie Walker said in a note to clients. “The closure appears to be nearing an end, but it will take time for statistical agencies to process the backlog of releases.”
Goldman expects the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics to release an updated release schedule early next week, assuming the government reopens by the end of this week.
In addition to employment statistics, the BLS is responsible for the CPI and producer price index, which are scheduled to be released this week. The bureau’s other reports include import and export prices, employment cost indexes, and recruitment and turnover surveys.
Goldman economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after business reopens, likely next Tuesday or Wednesday. “However, apart from that, the release of other key data is expected to be delayed,” they said.
This means November jobs and inflation reports could be delayed by “at least a week,” Goldman said.
For the commercial sector, the more relevant report is Personal Expenditures and Income, which also includes the Federal Reserve’s main inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Other statistics include retail sales, durable goods, and quarterly gross domestic product.
Once the data freeze ends, reports on the economy are likely to show more of the same: a slowing labor market, inflation still above the Fed’s comfort level, and broad-based growth positive but not gangbusting.
Fed officials have pointed to the inconvenience of not reporting regular data. But Chairman Jerome Powell recently said alternative data shows the central bank isn’t actually missing much from an overall macro perspective.
“While the government shutdown has delayed the release of some key federal statistics, available public and private sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly since our September meeting,” Powell said at a press conference on October 29. “Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat high.”
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 60,000 jobs to be lost in October’s nonfarm payrolls report. Goldman puts the decline at 50,000, but the overall trend in this month’s data shows a slowdown.
Powell said the Fed estimates headline inflation at 2.8% in September, which is still well above the central bank’s 2% target, but is expected to gradually slow through 2026. The PCE’s official report is scheduled to be downgraded on November 26, but it is unclear whether this will actually happen.
As for the broader economy, growth was 4% in the third quarter, according to GDPNow, which tracks data obtained by the Atlanta Fed. Goldman now expects growth to be 1.3% in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its prior forecast, and a 2% annualized pace for the full year.
