Here are five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell press conference.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting, which ended on Wednesday, had a promising outcome, but there were also some surprises. Here are five key takeaways.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, but not without some behind-the-scenes intrigue, including one negative vote in each direction. While Governor Stephen Milan cast a widely expected “no” vote because he wanted a half-point rate cut, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt wanted no rate cut, representing a distinctly growing group of inflation hawks concerned about the Fed’s easing bias. Chairman Jerome Powell used uncharacteristically strong language to push back against further interest rate cuts in December, when the market had predicted there was about a 90% chance of a rate cut. “During this committee discussion, there were very different views on how to proceed in December,” Chairman Powell said at a press conference. “Further cuts in policy rates at the December meeting are not a foregone conclusion. We are far from a conclusion,” he continued, noting that the 19 participants in the meeting expressed “very different views” and that their tone would be reflected in the meeting minutes to be published in three weeks. The market knew the end of QT was coming, but there was still no decision as to when it would end. The committee put an end to that, saying quantitative tightening, or the stripping of assets from the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, would end after the November operation. Powell has talked a lot about cuts in December, and ending QT could have a similar impact. At the same time, the committee said it would reinvest maturing mortgage bonds into short-term bills, which Powell said would make the balance sheet more short-term and even more tilted toward the Treasury. On the issue of inflation, Powell suggested that inflation is moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target, but is still trending upward (the Fed’s recommended standard is about 2.8%). The tariffs have pushed that figure up by half a percentage point, but Powell said he continues to think the impact of the tariffs will be temporary. The October inflation forecast is important because the Commerce Department will not release official numbers for the Consumer Expenditure Price Index due to the government shutdown. Powell acknowledged the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, but said the lack of public data would not change the economic picture of slowing growth, rising unemployment and a “slight increase” in inflation. “While the government shutdown has delayed the release of some key federal statistics, available public and private sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly since the September meeting,” he said.

“He kind of took a dig at WWE for predicting a December rate cut. I don’t think[the door]was completely closed, but it was expected to be a foregone conclusion. And he was pretty vocal and said, ‘No, you shouldn’t think of it that way.'” – Dan North, senior economist at Allianz

“Thus, regardless of the Fed’s use of alternative data sources, we believe it is more likely that it will not cut rates at its December meeting, which would push any further accommodative interest rate action to the new year and possibly a new chair.” — Rick Rieder, head of fixed income at BlackRock and a finalist for Chair Powell’s term when his term expires in May.

“Although he tried to say it was not a foreseen conclusion, a December rate cut still seems likely. No Fed leader wants to be responsible for an economic slowdown or recession.” — Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union