Tesla is scheduled to report earnings after the bell on Wednesday.
According to the average of forecasts compiled by LSEG, analysts expect:
Earnings per share: 54 cents Expected sales: $26.37 billion expected
Tesla is expected to return to growth for at least one quarter after two consecutive years of year-over-year sales declines, with analysts expecting sales to rise 4.7% from $25.18 billion in the year-ago period. However, initial estimates for the fourth quarter show a 1.2% decline in sales, according to LSEG.
At Tesla’s last earnings call in July, CEO Elon Musk and Finance Director Vaibhav Taneja warned shareholders about the impact of rising tariff costs and the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit.
The end of tax credits in President Donald Trump’s spending bill brought forward sales at Tesla and other electric car makers as consumers rushed to take advantage of the benefits before they expire.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles, with total production reaching a record high of 447,450 vehicles. However, deliveries through the first three quarters were approximately 1.2 million units, a decrease of approximately 6% compared to the same period in 2024.
Deliveries are the closest thing Tesla reports to vehicle sales, but they are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
In the second quarter, Tesla reported $16.7 billion in auto revenue, including $439 million in auto regulatory credit sales.
Cantor Fitzgerald analysts said in a note Tuesday that they will focus on updates from Tesla on Musk’s comments and “several key upcoming materials that could be near-term catalysts.” This includes the advancement of Tesla’s Robotaxis brand of service in Texas and California, the production and sale of the company’s new low-cost Model 3 and Y vehicles, and the adoption of premium driver assistance systems in China and Europe.
Analysts who rate the stock the equivalent of a “buy” said they are also keeping an eye on next year’s launch of CyberCab, a two-seater robotaxis without a steering wheel or pedals, as well as updates on Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, which has not yet been commercially deployed.
Tesla’s third quarter was marked by continued sales weakness in Europe brought on by consumer backlash against Mr. Musk, his inflammatory political rhetoric and activism, and competition from EV makers such as Volkswagen and BYD.
After falling sharply at the beginning of the year, the company’s stock has rebounded and is up nearly 7% in 2025. The stock still lags behind major indexes and most of its mega-cap peers.
Last week, S&P Global released a report explaining that even as tariffs ease, the auto industry continues to face demand headwinds in the face of slowing disposable income growth, consumer pessimism and fluid trade policy.
Still, the researchers revised upward their forecast for U.S. light vehicle sales to 16.1 million units in 2025, an increase of about 2%, and 1.3% in 2026 to 15.3 million units.
In Interbrand’s 2025 Best Global Brands list released earlier this month, Tesla’s brand ranking dropped from 12th in 2024 to 25th. Automobile competitors such as Toyota, Mercedes, and BMW all outperformed Tesla, with Toyota reaching the highest ranking in 6th place.
“Tesla was once a major disruptive force in the auto industry,” the report states. “However, increased competition in the EV market and Elon Musk’s increased focus on political activities led to lower profits in 2024 and lower financial forecasts for 2025.”
The report added that “a lack of product and lower-priced competitors’ innovation raises concerns about Tesla’s ability to maintain high profit margins.”
Tesla executives will host a conference call with analysts at 5:30 p.m. ET.
In an online forum that Tesla uses to let investors submit questions ahead of the company’s earnings release, most shareholders wanted to know about the company’s robotaxi trials and plans. They also asked how AI is driving demand for Tesla’s energy products, such as large backup batteries and solar power that can power data centers and other facilities.
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