Television stations broadcast Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, in the chambers of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, USA.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.
Here are five important things investors need to know to start their trading day.
1. Set expectations
We’re counting down to the Fed’s interest rate decision this afternoon and Chairman Powell’s subsequent press conference. Despite widespread expectations that the central bank would cut interest rates, traders have not flooded the stock market ahead of the announcement.
Here’s what you need to know:
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, federal funds futures are priced in with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) cut, but many expect this to be a “hawkish rate cut,” meaning the central bank makes it clear it could be its last rate cut for some time. According to CNBC’s Fed survey, 87% of respondents think the central bank will cut interest rates today, but only 45% think they should actually cut rates. Only 35% expect another rate cut in January. russell 2000 It rose to an all-time high yesterday as investors bet on upcoming monetary easing, which is known to benefit small businesses. S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average When pulled back, the latter was weighed down with the weight of: JP Morgan Chase This comes after the bank said it expects spending to be higher than expected next year. Both indexes are in the red this week. Meanwhile, CNBC’s Steve Reisman reported this morning that President Donald Trump will begin final interviews for the next Fed chair this week, starting with former Fed President Kevin Warsh. Follow us here for live market updates.
2. Omen of the Oracle
On September 10, 2025, the Oracle logo appears on a building at the Oracle campus in Redwood Shores, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Investors won’t have to wait long for another potential market catalyst after Powell finishes his press conference. oracle The company releases second-quarter earnings after the bell, but the pressure is mounting.
As CNBC’s Seema Modi points out, tech companies need to show they can continue to fund bold infrastructure plans. The company also needs to prove its AI-driven growth story is healthy, as Oracle has emerged as a leader in artificial intelligence in recent months.
Oracle stock was little changed in premarket trading this morning. The stock is up more than 30% this year, despite October’s biggest single-month decline in more than 20 years.
3. Pharmaceutical Shopping Cart
Plans for Eli Lilly’s new manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama.
Provided by: Eli Lilly
Big drug companies are betting on obesity drugs and writing big checks.
Eli Lilly announced yesterday that it will spend $6 billion to build a manufacturing plant in Huntsville, Alabama, to help produce experimental obesity drugs and other drugs. As CNBC’s Annika Kim Constantino points out, this is the third facility the company has announced as part of its plan to expand domestic manufacturing.
pfizerMeanwhile, the company announced that it has signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with Chinese-owned YaoPharma for the purpose of developing and commercializing obesity treatment drugs. The deal marks Pfizer’s latest entry into the blockbuster weight-loss market, following last month’s acquisition of Metzer.
4. Lifting payment suspension
Students walk on the campus of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA on November 19, 2025.
Reba Saldaña | Reuters
Millions of student loan borrowers whose payments have been suspended may soon be forced to resume payments. The Department of Education announced yesterday that the proposed settlement would require borrowers enrolled in the Biden administration’s Savings for a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan to choose a new repayment option.
The proposal comes in the wake of new data showing that 42% of student loan borrowers say their monthly payments make it difficult to pay for necessities like food and shelter. More than half of respondents said debt is making it difficult to save for retirement.
5. Target or Tarzei?
Target has transformed a store in New York City’s SoHo neighborhood into a unique concept store. Inside the area, which resembles the company’s bullseye logo, is The Drop, a rotating display of seasonal styles and carefully selected items.
target provided
target seeks to establish itself as a leader in trends and style. We’re doing it in one of New York City’s most fashionable neighborhoods.
The retailer has renovated its Soho store with rotating products, a beauty bar and displays curated by celebrities and influencers. Incoming CEO Michael Fidelke said the location is a “watershed” point in Target’s sense of style and future direction as the company seeks to recapture consumer discretionary spending.
As CNBC’s Melissa Repko reports, Target is rushing to reopen the store in time for the holidays, and the redesign of the store’s first floor took four months. Click here to take a look inside.
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—CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Sean Conlon, Hugh Son, Steve Liesman, John Melloy, Seema Mody, Annika Kim Constantino, Annie Nova and Melissa Repko contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this version.
