On the surface, at least, it appeared to be one of the best face-to-face meetings between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but in their sixth meeting in a year, the relationship has frayed to breaking point and requires regular and painstaking repairs.
The atmosphere was relaxed as they emerged from Mar-a-Lago’s dining room. President Zelenskiy wore a suit, the same stark black compromise statement he wore to the White House in October. President Trump described the meeting as “excellent” and asked whether President Zelenskiy and the general, who “looks like the central figure,” had enjoyed the meal. It’s certainly awkward, but it’s a far cry from the blatant humiliation of the Ukrainian leader that took place in the Oval Office in February.
Nevertheless, beneath the veil of civility was the US president’s rhetoric suggesting that his default position in the negotiations was still to put pressure on Kiev while placating Moscow.
On the most difficult issue, the territorial issue, Trump at one point suggested that a deal could be “adopted” in the coming months anyway, asking: “Is it better to do it now?” It was eerily similar to the lines of Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov summarizing the early Sunday morning phone call between President Vladimir Putin and President Trump, saying: “Given the situation on the front, it would be logical for the Ukrainian regime to adopt this decision regarding Donbass without delay.”
That echo was not lost on the Kremlin. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said in a phone call with reporters that Trump “appears to have reminded (Ukrainians) that Ukraine is losing land and will continue to lose land.” As Russian forces continue to advance in the eastern Donbas region, President Putin has demanded that Ukraine cede land not yet occupied by Russia.
The Kremlin would already be confident in its ability to influence the US president. In the run-up to the Alaska summit between President Trump and President Putin in August, European leaders worked hard to convince Trump of the idea that a ceasefire was needed before peace talks, something the Kremlin has always denied. In the end, it was President Putin who won the debate, and more than four months later, President Trump still appears to support his view.
“He (Putin) feels that they are fighting to stop, but if they have to start again, which is a possibility, he doesn’t want to be in that position. I understand that position,” Trump said Sunday.
With the ceasefire clearly removed from the table, a new impasse has emerged. While Ukraine has become increasingly open to discussing territorial concessions, President Zelenskiy has made clear that giving up Ukrainian land or changing its status will likely require a referendum, and that a referendum cannot occur without a ceasefire lasting at least 60 days.
Therefore, no ceasefire means no referendum, and no referendum could mean no territorial concessions from Ukraine and ultimately no deal. So we’re back on the diplomatic merry-go-round, buying more and more time until Russia attacks.
“Russia wants to continue to put pressure on us. And what does this continuation look like? War, missiles, artillery,” Zelenskyy said in comments to reporters Monday morning. As he spoke, most of Ukraine began a new week with regular power outages, with more than 9,000 households in the Kiev region waking up without any power.
It’s no surprise that Ukraine’s president took offense to the issue of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia took over by force in March 2022 and has occupied ever since, while listening to Trump describe Putin as “very good.”
“President Putin is actually working with Ukraine to get the factory up and running. This is a big step, given that they don’t bomb the factory,” the US president said.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is currently undergoing repairs to nearby power lines to prevent a nuclear accident. The facility has been cut off from external power supply 12 times since the Russian occupation, and the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned earlier this month that the Russian government’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure also pose a threat to the country’s security. “Ukraine’s power grid continues to be unstable, and nuclear safety continues to be compromised,” Director-General Rafael Grossi said.
Small progress has been made on one of the key issues for Ukraine: security. After President Trump reversed his stance in August, Kiev’s government had previously given only verbal assurances that the United States would participate in postwar security. These guarantees are now in writing and still require parliamentary approval, with a 15-year expiration date that President Zelenskiy hopes to extend. This guarantee does not mean a U.S. military presence, but it would at least provide support should Europe decide to send troops. “We’re going to support Europe 100 percent, just as Europe supports us,” Trump said.
But everything remains hypothetical until Russia and Ukraine come together for direct dialogue, which President Zelenskiy hopes will happen in January after another round of talks with allies. On Monday, that prospect seemed even more remote after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Kiev of attacking one of President Vladimir Putin’s residences and promised that Moscow would “review” its negotiating position as a result. President Zelenskiy rejected the claim as “another Russian lie.”
Kremlin spokesman Peskov reiterated on Monday that Russia wants to “withdraw regime forces from Donbas across the administrative border.” Of course, this includes areas that Russia has not been able to capture in nearly four years of war. And in return, Moscow continues to receive praise and diplomatic overtures from the White House, with Trump meeting with Putin before and after his meeting with Zelensky.
Mr Zelenskiy said on Monday that the diplomatic merry-go-round would pick up again for 2026, with advisory-level talks followed by a “coalition” meeting in Paris in early January, followed by a possible meeting with President Trump in Washington. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has proposed continuing discussions in multiple working groups, an idea supported by the Russian government.
However, we cannot exclude the possibility of sudden changes in this now largely predictable cycle. Frustrated, President Trump imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants in October, causing Russian oil prices to plummet to their lowest level since the invasion in February 2022.
“For Ukraine, President Trump’s tug of war may not be lost yet. The leaders are meeting and the dialogue continues,” Olysia Rutsevich, director of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, wrote in a post about X. Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev was less optimistic. “If you want to postpone something indefinitely, create several working groups,” he writes.
CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Victoria Butenko, Darya Tarasova, Issy Ronald, Svitlana Vlasova, Mitchell McCluskey and Aditi Sangal contributed to this report.
