(These are market notes on today’s action by Mike Santori, senior market commentator at CNBC. See today’s video update from the microphone above.) The market continues to stomp on the water. Nvidia has raised the S&P 500 by 2.6% near the flatline, almost alone, by its $15 billion contract with AI infrastructure service CoreWeave, which was sufficient to recharge its enthusiasm for sustained demand for processing capacity. Other places, however, the tape is a bit heavy. In particular, in the consumer cycle, soft consumer confidence readings have shown that it is difficult to spread jobs in abundance and lowers another new cycle. This comes with the commonly anticipated Jolt report, but for the first time in years I have seen job openings slip below the total number of unemployed people. The discretion of comparable weight consumers is under a bit of pressure as restaurants and travel names are weakened, and now performance across a wide range of markets is degraded on a one-year basis. Banks, especially consumer finance play (credit card issuers), were noticeably weak. In addition to lower Treasury yields and another supply-driven drop in crude oil prices, it gives the tape a bit of a “growth horror” look. It’s important to point out the last day of the quarter, but it could mean that a significant amount of portfolio rebalancing could also be working. Pharmaceutical stocks were on the rise as Pfizer and others cut deals with managers and avoided tariffs in return to lowering cash payers prices and providing drugs directly to consumers. This lifts overhangs from deep favorite cheap groups. Is the Pharma Index breaking the steep downtrend? Signs of living from the defence sector and consumer circulation are likely directed towards government shutdowns and the vacuum of formal industry, which may suggest that the market is immersed in short-term macroeconomic risks. It all solidifies the view that the Fed rate cuts in October are locks. The consensus seems to still believe some things that I think are biased by the market for a bit. An early re-acceleration of growth as rate reductions and tax cuts clauses take hold. A rampage of durable corporate capital expenditures. A well-balanced labor market that maintains stable, if not strong, consumption. The end of the year rally follows as professional investors are catching up. It’s all plausible, but while it’s notable in history, the fourth quarter is “only” for 75-80% of all years, not a solid rock.
